Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 28

Date: 21 January 2025, Tuesday

Location: The Den (London)

Referee: Davies A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, StarTimes App
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Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
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Ireland	NOW
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Mexico	ESPN 2
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
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Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 2, NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Ultra
Usa	CBS, Paramount+
World	Disney+


	Millwall		Cardiff City

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.75	3.9	Watch
	2.25	2.8	3.8
	2.28	2.92	3.7	Watch
	2.31	2.87	3.93
	2.32	2.85	3.73	Watch
	2.25	2.8	3.8
	2.24	2.94	3.76	Watch
	2.28	2.92	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (1.95)	2.86 ↓ (3.37)	3.79 ↓ (4.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Millwall
41.7%

Draw
33.2%

Cardiff City
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

28%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

29.8%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Millwall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Millwall's form might have worsened.

Cardiff City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Millwall than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Millwall, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.4%	37.9%	20.7%

Millwall - Cardiff City Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Millwall will win (votes: 11 - 39.3%). Cardiff will win (votes: 6 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 39.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Millwall: 21.2% – 57.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jensen L. (G) 18. Leonard R. 6. Tanganga J. 5. Cooper J. (C) 15. Bryan J. 23. Saville G. 24. De Norre C. 19. Watmore D. 31. Bangura-Williams R. 33. Scanlon C. 17. Langstaff M.	21. Alnwick J. (C) 35. Rinomhota A. 4. Goutas D. 5. Daland J. 23. Bagan J. 3. Siopis M. 12. Chambers C. 19. Meite Y. 27. Colwill R. 16. Willock C. 47. Robinson C.
Substitutes
9. Connolly A. 52. Crama T. 39. Honeyman G. 4. Hutchinson S. 26. Ivanovic M. 2. McNamara D. 8. Mitchell B. 13. Roberts L. (G) 3. Wallace M.	45. Ashford C. 20. El Ghazi A. 2. Fish W. 49. Giles L. 1. Horvath E. (G) 38. Ng P. 56. Pearce L. 8. Ralls J. 22. Salech Y.
Coaches
Neil A.	Riza O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Scanlon C. ⚽,
19', 2 - 0, De Norre C. ⚽, Bangura-Williams R. (A),
45+1', 2 - 1, Willock C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Siopis M. ↓, Ng P. ↑,
59', Leonard R. ↓, McNamara D. ↑,
63', McNamara D. ↓, Crama T. ↑,
64', Bangura-Williams R. ↓, Ivanovic M. ↑,
70', Meite Y. ↓, Salech Y. ↑,
70', Colwill R. ↓, Ashford C. ↑,
78', Willock C. ↓, El Ghazi A. ↑,
78', Watmore D. ↓, Mitchell B. ↑,
78', Scanlon C. ↓, Honeyman G. ↑,
78', Daland J. ↓, Fish W. ↑,
90+7', 2 - 2, Salech Y. ⚽, Ng P. (A),

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 17 and 20).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Millwall won 3.

Recent matches Millwall is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Cardiff is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Cardiff could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Millwall will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Millwall: Coburn J. (Broken Leg) Emakhu A. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Cardiff: Davies I. (Leg Injury) Ramsey A. (Muscle Injury) Reindorf M. (Ankle Injury) Riza O. (Red Card) Turnbull D. (Muscle Injury)

Last 18 head-to-head matches Millwall won 5 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 16:16 (average 0.9:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Millwall won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12:8 (average 1.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Cardiff City - the odds 4.05 are the expected chance of winning is 23.39%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Millwall
English League Championship
18.01.25	Millwall - Hull City	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
13.01.25	Millwall - Dagenham & Redbridge	3:0 ✺
English League Championship
04.01.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Millwall	2:2 ✺
01.01.25	Millwall - Oxford United	0:1 ✺
29.12.24	Coventry City - Millwall	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWTLT
- Cardiff City
English League Championship
18.01.25	Cardiff City - Swansea City	3:0 ✺
14.01.25	Cardiff City - Watford	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
09.01.25	Sheffield United - Cardiff City	0:1 ✺
English League Championship
04.01.25	Middlesbrough - Cardiff City	1:1 ✺
01.01.25	Cardiff City - Coventry City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.1 WTWTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
01.10.24	Cardiff City - Millwall	1:0
13.04.24	Millwall - Cardiff City	3:1
09.12.23	Cardiff City - Millwall	1:0
21.01.23	Cardiff City - Millwall	0:1
03.09.22	Millwall - Cardiff City	2:0
12.02.22	Millwall - Cardiff City	2:1
21.08.21	Cardiff City - Millwall	3:1

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