Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 25

Date: 1 January 2025, Wednesday

Location: Cardiff City Stadium (Cardiff)

Referee: Eltringham G. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	Net4+
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Cardiff City		Coventry City

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.3	2.25	Watch
	3.3	3.25	2.15
	3.2	3.25	2.32	Watch
	3.26	3.27	2.29	Watch
	3.3	3.2	2.3
	3.31	3.2	2.3	Watch
	3.2	3.25	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.25 ↑ (2.73)	3.25 ↓ (3.53)	2.28 ↓ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff City
29.1%

Draw
29.2%

Coventry City
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

26.5%

39.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

25.7%

40.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cardiff City's form might have worsened.

Coventry City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Coventry City than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	27.5%	60%

Cardiff City - Coventry City Predictions

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. Cardiff will win (votes: 5 - 12.8%). Coventry will win (votes: 23 - 59%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 28.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Coventry: 43.6% – 74.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Alnwick J. (C) 35. Rinomhota A. 4. Goutas D. 5. Daland J. 11. O'Dowda C. 3. Siopis M. 12. Chambers C. 45. Ashford C. 18. Robertson A. 16. Willock C. 47. Robinson C.	1. Dovin O. (G) 27. van Ewijk M. 4. Thomas B. 22. Latibeaudiere J. 21. Bidwell J. 28. Eccles J. 14. Sheaf B. (C) 7. Sakamoto T. 29. Torp V. 5. Rudoni J. 9. Simms E.
Substitutes
23. Bagan J. 27. Colwill R. 1. Horvath E. (G) 15. Kanga W. 44. Kpakio R. 19. Meite Y. 38. Ng P. 8. Ralls J. 32. Tanner O.	8. Allen J. 37. Bassette N. 2. Binks L. 17. Borges Rodrigues R. 40. Collins B. (G) 3. Dasilva J. 15. Kitching L. 30. Tavares F. 23. Thomas-Asante B.
Coaches
Riza O.	Lampard F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Robertson A. ⚽, Ashford C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', 1 - 1, Sakamoto T. ⚽,
47', Robinson C. 🟥,
59', Daland J. ↓, Ng P. ↑,
69', Ashford C. ↓, Meite Y. ↑,
69', Willock C. ↓, Tanner O. ↑,
73', Eccles J. ↓, Thomas-Asante B. ↑,
77', Torp V. ↓, Bassette N. ↑,
83', Rinomhota A. 🟨,
85', Robertson A. ↓, Ralls J. ↑,
86', Siopis M. ↓, Bagan J. ↑,
90', Sakamoto T. ↓, Borges Rodrigues R. ↑,
90+5', Alnwick J. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cardiff won 2.

Cardiff is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Coventry is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Coventry will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Cardiff won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 16:12 (average 1.5:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Cardiff won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10:6 (average 2:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff City
English League Championship
29.12.24	Watford - Cardiff City	1:2 ✺
26.12.24	Oxford United - Cardiff City	3:2 ✺
21.12.24	Cardiff City - Sheffield United	0:2 ✺
14.12.24	Stoke City - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
11.12.24	Cardiff City - Preston North End	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLLTL
- Coventry City
English League Championship
29.12.24	Coventry City - Millwall	0:0 ✺
26.12.24	Coventry City - Plymouth Argyle	4:0 ✺
21.12.24	Portsmouth - Coventry City	4:1 ✺
14.12.24	Coventry City - Hull City	2:1 ✺
11.12.24	West Bromwich Albion - Coventry City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
30.11.24	Coventry City - Cardiff City	2:2
01.04.24	Coventry City - Cardiff City	1:2
19.09.23	Cardiff City - Coventry City	3:2
29.12.22	Coventry City - Cardiff City	0:0
15.10.22	Cardiff City - Coventry City	0:1
15.02.22	Cardiff City - Coventry City	2:0
15.09.21	Coventry City - Cardiff City	1:0

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