Match Info

Championship - Round 46

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: The Den (London)

Referee: Backhouse A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Millwall		Oxford United

	1	X	2
	1.35	5	7	Watch
	1.38	5	7.75
	1.4	4.9	7.31	Watch
	1.38	5.23	8.15
	1.36	5.28	7.75	Watch
	1.36	4.8	7
	1.41	5.26	7.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.42)	5.07 ↑ (4.68)	7.53 ↑ (6.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Millwall
68.7%

Draw
18.7%

Oxford United
12.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.1%

20%

13.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.8%

19.5%

13.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Millwall has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Oxford United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Millwall than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.2%	5.3%	10.5%

Millwall - Oxford United Predictions

Users Predictions: Millwall will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.81% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Patterson A. (G) 18. Leonard R. 4. Crama T. 5. Cooper J. (C) 3. Sturge Z. 67. Bannan B. 24. De Norre C. 11. Azeez F. 10. Neghli C. 7. Ballo T. 9. Ivanovic M.	1. Cumming J. (G) 24. ter Avest H. 6. Helik M. (C) 3. Brown C. 15. Spencer B. 5. Konak Y. E. 4. Vaulks W. 17. Mills S. 33. Donley J. 10. Emakhu A. 27. Lankshear W.
Substitutes
15. Crocombe M. (G) 25. Cundle L. 14. Doughty A. 17. Langstaff M. 49. Mazou-Sacko D. 2. McNamara D. 8. Mitchell B. 39. Smallbone W. 22. Watson T.	8. Brannagan C. 26. Currie J. 9. Harris M. 21. Ingram M. (G) 32. Jeon Jin-Woo 2. Long S. 37. Makosso C. 38. McDonnell J. 44. Peart-Harris M.
Coaches
Neil A.	Bloomfield M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', Konak Y. E. ↓, Brannagan C. ↑,
34', 1 - 0, Azeez F. ⚽, Ivanovic M. (A),
39', Ballo T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', 2 - 0, Azeez F. ⚽,
59', Mills S. ↓, Jeon Jin-Woo ↑,
59', Lankshear W. ↓, Harris M. ↑,
59', Donley J. ↓, McDonnell J. ↑,
61', De Norre C. ↓, Mitchell B. ↑,
61', Sturge Z. ↓, Doughty A. ↑,
62', Ballo T. ↓, Cundle L. ↑,
74', Azeez F. ↓, Smallbone W. ↑,
81', Bannan B. ↓, Langstaff M. ↑,
88', ter Avest H. ↓, Long S. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).

Oxford is Relegated to League One

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Millwall won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Millwall may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Millwall is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Millwall: Bryan J. (Injury) Jensen L. (Muscle Injury) Kelly D. (Hamstring Injury) Luongo M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Oxford: De Keersmaecker B. (Shoulder Injury) Goodrham T. (Ankle Injury) Leigh G. (Calf Injury) Placheta P. (Injury)

There are questionable in Millwall: Coburn J. (Injury) Doughty A. (Calf Injury) Mitchell B. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Oxford: Brannagan C. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Millwall won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:13. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Millwall won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:6. (average 0:2).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Millwall: 5.26%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Millwall	9	4	2	3	16:15	1	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Millwall
English League Championship
24.04.26	Leicester City - Millwall	1:1 ✺
21.04.26	Stoke City - Millwall	1:3 ✺
18.04.26	Millwall - Queens Park Rangers	2:0 ✺
10.04.26	West Bromwich Albion - Millwall	0:0 ✺
06.04.26	Millwall - Norwich City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TWWTL
- Oxford United
English League Championship
25.04.26	Oxford United - Sheffield Wednesday	4:1 ✺
21.04.26	Oxford United - Wrexham	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Derby County - Oxford United	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Oxford United - Watford	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Portsmouth - Oxford United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
01.11.25	Oxford United - Millwall	2:2
01.01.25	Millwall - Oxford United	0:1
30.11.24	Oxford United - Millwall	1:1
English League Cup
27.08.19	Oxford United - Millwall	3:2 penalties
English League One
22.04.17	Millwall - Oxford United	0:3
29.10.16	Oxford United - Millwall	1:2
English EFL Trophy
02.02.16	Oxford United - Millwall	0:1

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