Match Info

Championship - Round 6

Date: 22 September 2025, Monday

Location: The Den (London)

Referee: Smith J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Millwall		Watford

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	4.1	Watch
	2.1	3.25	3.7
	1.97	3.44	3.92	Watch
	2.02	3.39	4.12
	1.33	4.70	10.22	Watch
	1.99	3.46	4.18	Watch
	2.13	3.3	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2.1)	3.56 ↑ (3.25)	4.81 ↑ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Millwall
51.6%

Draw
27.8%

Watford
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

28.5%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

28.2%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Millwall has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Millwall's performance.

Watford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Watford might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Millwall than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Millwall that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Watford than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Watford could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	25%	19.4%

Millwall - Watford Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Millwall will win (votes: 19 - 55.9%). Watford will win (votes: 7 - 20.6%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Millwall: 39.2% – 72.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Millwall (votes: 7 - 70%). Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Millwall (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Watford (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Millwall (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Watford (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Benda S. (G) 18. Leonard R. 4. Crama T. 5. Cooper J. (C) 23. Bryan J. 10. Neghli C. 21. Luongo M. 49. Mazou-Sacko D. 22. Emakhu A. 7. Ballo T. 19. Coburn J.	1. Selvik E. (G) 3. Alleyne M. 6. Pollock M. 4. Keben K. 27. Mendy F. 10. Louza I. (C) 5. Kyprianou H. 23. Mendy N. 16. Bola M. 66. Irankunda N. 18. Semedo V.
Substitutes
31. Bangura-Williams R. 15. Crocombe M. (G) 27. Grant K. 45. Harding W. 47. Howland J. 17. Langstaff M. 39. Smallbone W. 3. Sturge Z. 6. Taylor C.	25. Abankwah J. 34. Baah K. 12. Baxter N. (G) 7. Ince T. 39. Kayembe E. 9. Kjerrumgaard L. 17. Sissoko M. 11. Vata R. 26. Wiley C.
Coaches
Neil A.	Pezzolano P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Neghli C. ⚽,
30', Bryan J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Selvik E. ↓, Baxter N. ↑,
62', Mendy N. ↓, Kayembe E. ↑,
67', Emakhu A. ↓, Smallbone W. ↑,
72', Bola M. ↓, Wiley C. ↑,
72', Mendy F. ↓, Baah K. ↑,
72', Semedo V. ↓, Kjerrumgaard L. ↑,
78', Ballo T. ↓, Taylor C. ↑,
79', Bryan J. ↓, Sturge Z. ↑,
79', Neghli C. ↓, Langstaff M. ↑,
88', Kyprianou H. ↓, Vata R. ↑,
90+3', Leonard R. ↓, Harding W. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Millwall won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Watford may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Watford has had a series of home games.

Millwall could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Millwall: Azeez F. (Ankle Injury) De Norre C. (Injury) Doughty A. (Hamstring Injury) Jensen L. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Lamptey R. (Injury) McNamara D. (Knee Injury) Mitchell B. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Watford: Chakvetadze G. (Foot Injury) Grieves J. (Ankle Injury) Wiley C. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Millwall: Baker-Boaitey B. (Inactive) Kelly D. (Injury) Langstaff M. (Hip Injury) Lovelace Z. (Knee Injury) Smallbone W. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Watford: Dwomoh P. (Thigh Injury) Ngakia J. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Millwall won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:18. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Millwall won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1.1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Millwall
English League Cup
16.09.25	Crystal Palace - Millwall	2:1 penalties ✺
English League Championship
13.09.25	Charlton Athletic - Millwall	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Millwall - Wrexham	0:2 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Millwall - Coventry City	2:1 ✺
English League Championship
23.08.25	Sheffield United - Millwall	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 LTLWW
- Watford FC
English League Championship
13.09.25	Watford - Blackburn Rovers	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Watford - Southampton	2:2 ✺
23.08.25	Swansea City - Watford	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Watford - Queens Park Rangers	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	Watford - Norwich City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
08.03.25	Watford - Millwall	1:2
10.08.24	Millwall - Watford	2:3
02.03.24	Millwall - Watford	1:0
28.10.23	Watford - Millwall	2:2
26.12.22	Watford - Millwall	0:2
19.10.22	Millwall - Watford	3:0
24.04.21	Watford - Millwall	1:0

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