Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 45

Date: 29 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadium MK (Milton Keynes)

Referee: Backhouse A. (Eng)


	Milton Keynes Dons		Barnsley

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.25	2.55
	2.75	3.2	2.5
	2.9	3.5	2.4
	2.84	3.39	2.59
	2.75	3.25	2.5
	2.75	3.35	2.53	Watch
	2.75	3.25	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↓ (3.12)	3.31 ↑ (3.3)	2.51 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milton Keynes Dons
33.8%

Draw
28.6%

Barnsley
37.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.6%

27.9%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.7%

27%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milton Keynes Dons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Barnsley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Milton Keynes Dons that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barnsley than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Barnsley could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	0%	84.6%

Milton Keynes Dons - Barnsley Predictions

Users Predictions: Barnsley will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

MK Dons has the most likely position - 20 (45.58%), project points - 45, currently - 43, a chance of relegated (44%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

Barnsley has the most likely position - 4 (95.72%), project points - 89, currently - 85, not chance of relegated, already of prom. playoffs, a chance of promoted (32%), not chance of win league.

This event has small quality 23, importance 61, match rating 42. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

MK Dons is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Barnsley is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

MK Dons could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 4 head-to-head matches MK Dons won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9-9.

Including matches at home between the teams MK Dons won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Milton Keynes Dons
English League One
22.04.23	Fleetwood Town - Milton Keynes Dons	1:0 ✺
18.04.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Charlton Athletic	0:1 ✺
15.04.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Cheltenham Town	2:2 ✺
10.04.23	Derby County - Milton Keynes Dons	1:1 ✺
07.04.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Portsmouth	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLTTT
- Barnsley FC
English League One
25.04.23	Barnsley - Ipswich Town	0:3 ✺
22.04.23	Barnsley - Oxford United	2:0 ✺
18.04.23	Lincoln City - Barnsley	0:0 ✺
15.04.23	Forest Green Rovers - Barnsley	1:5 ✺
10.04.23	Barnsley - Shrewsbury Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
19.11.22	Barnsley - Milton Keynes Dons	3:1
24.01.15	Milton Keynes Dons - Barnsley	2:0
13.09.14	Barnsley - Milton Keynes Dons	3:5
English FA Cup
16.02.13	Milton Keynes Dons - Barnsley	1:3

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