Match Info

League Two - Round 19

Date: 9 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Meadow Lane (Nottingham)

Referee: Farmer A. (Eng)


	Notts County		Milton Keynes Dons

	1	X	2
	2.57	3.2	2.55	Watch
	2.62	3.15	2.68	Watch
	2.73	3.25	2.73
	2.71	3.3	2.52	Watch
	2.7	3	2.6
	2.65	3.14	2.61	Watch
	2.66	3.2	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.4)	3.18 ↓ (3.4)	2.62 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Notts County
35%

Draw
29.4%

Milton Keynes Dons
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

26.5%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

27.3%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Notts County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Milton Keynes Dons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Notts County than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	50%	30%

Notts County - Milton Keynes Dons Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Notts County will win (votes: 2 - 20%). MK Dons will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Notts County (votes: 1 - 25%). MK Dons (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - MK Dons (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Notts County (votes: 1 - 20%). MK Dons (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Roos K. (G) 28. Macari L. 5. Platt M. 4. Bedeau J. (C) 25. Tsaroulla N. 8. Norburn O. 14. Iorpenda T. 47. Bennetts K. 11. Grant C. 19. Dennis M. 29. Jatta A.	1. MacGillivray C. (G) 15. Offord L. 21. Ekpiteta M. 23. Maguire L. 16. Nemane A. 20. Thompson-Sommers K. 6. Kelly L. 8. Gilbey A. (C) 22. Mellish J. 13. Paterson C. 11. Mendez-Laing N.
Substitutes
2. Gordon K. 21. Griffiths H. (G) 10. Jones J. 17. Kouhyar Q. 3. McDonald R. 12. Ness L. 7. Traore M.	18. Collar W. 10. Collins A. 7. Crowley D. 2. Jones G. 14. Tomlinson J. 34. Tripp C. 27. Trueman C. (G)
Coaches
Paterson M.	Warne P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Mendez-Laing N. ⚽, Paterson C. (A),
8', 1 - 1, Dennis M. ⚽, Bedeau J. (A),
13', 1 - 2, Mendez-Laing N. (Penalty Awarded),
26', 2 - 2, Jatta A. ⚽,
36', Nemane A. 🟨,
45+4', Macari L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Nemane A. ↓, Jones G. ↑,
59', Offord L. 🟨,
66', Mendez-Laing N. ↓, Collins A. ↑,
67', Maguire L. ↓, Tomlinson J. ↑,
73', Tsaroulla N. ↓, Kouhyar Q. ↑,
73', Grant C. ↓, Jones J. ↑,
76', Paterson C. ↓, Collar W. ↑,
84', Jatta A. ↓, Gordon K. ↑,
88', 3 - 2, Iorpenda T. ⚽,
90', Macari L. ↓, Ness L. ↑,
90+3', Kelly L. ↓, Crowley D. ↑,
90+5', Thompson-Sommers K. 🟨,
90+8', Dennis M. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Notts County won 2.

Notts County has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

MK Dons is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Notts County may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, MK Dons has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Notts County: Hall T. (Red Card) Jones J. (Inactive) Luker J. (Inactive) Palmer M. (Inactive)

There will not play in MK Dons: Hepburn-Murphy R. (Hamstring Injury) Wilson K. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Notts County: McDonald R. (Injury)

There are questionable in MK Dons: Hogan S. (Inactive) Lemonheigh-Evans C. (Inactive)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Notts County won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 16:22. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Notts County won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1.3:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Milton Keynes Dons - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 36.01%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Notts County
English League Two
29.11.25	Bristol Rovers - Notts County	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Notts County - Colchester United	1:3 ✺
15.11.25	Notts County - Harrogate Town	1:1 ✺
10.11.25	Cheltenham Town - Notts County	1:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
04.11.25	Notts County - Manchester United U21	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLTWL
- Milton Keynes Dons
English FA Cup
06.12.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Oldham Athletic	3:1 ✺
English League Two
29.11.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Fleetwood Town	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Tranmere Rovers - Milton Keynes Dons	2:2 ✺
15.11.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Salford City	2:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
02.04.25	Notts County - Milton Keynes Dons	3:0
26.12.24	Milton Keynes Dons - Notts County	0:2
01.04.24	Notts County - Milton Keynes Dons	3:3
09.09.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Notts County	1:1
19.04.19	Notts County - Milton Keynes Dons	1:2
23.10.18	Milton Keynes Dons - Notts County	2:1
English League One
21.03.15	Milton Keynes Dons - Notts County	4:1

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