Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba (Zacatecas)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Mineros de Zacatecas		Tepatitlán de Morelos

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.28	3.25	2.88	Watch
	2.4	3.35	3.06
	2.32	3.39	2.96	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.75
	2.27	3.22	3.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.27)	3.26 ↓ (3.47)	2.95 ↑ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Mineros de Zacatecas
40.1%

Draw
28.4%

Tepatitlán de Morelos
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

26.9%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

27.4%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mineros de Zacatecas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Tepatitlán de Morelos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mineros de Zacatecas than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tepatitlán de Morelos than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Mineros de Zacatecas - Tepatitlán de Morelos Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Mineros de Zacatecas will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Tepatitlán will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Duran L. (G) 10. Avila J. (C) 2. Cervantes L. 17. De Los Rios S. 23. Garcia A. 12. Hernandez L. 11. Lopez F. 4. Marmolejo D. 18. Mendoza A. 13. Perez M. 6. Rios P.	1. Gutierrez G. (C) 22. Aguilar D. 18. Gomez J. 5. Gonzalez K. 10. Guzman W. 19. Islas O. 2. Pinela M. 11. Reyes J. 6. Ruiz A. 30. Talavera J. 23. Venegas J.
Substitutes
3. Barajas V. 20. Castro Garcia W. D. 110. Cordero M. 92. Ibarra R. 9. Machado J. 14. Mazatan O. 86. Rios R. 8. Trejo E. 22. Valenzuela J. (G) 15. Villacorta A.	7. Escoto A. 12. Gonzalez C. (G) 13. Gonzalez Calderon L. A. 140. Iniguez O. 159. Macias L. 33. Martinez A. 29. Mendoza B. 21. Moreno Villegas J. A. 8. Samano Salgado F.
Coaches
Munoz L.	Pereyra G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', Aguilar D. 🟨,
25', Cervantes L. 🟨,
41', Rios P. 🟨,
44', 1 - 0, Perez M. ⚽, Lopez F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', Hernandez L. 🟨,
60', Cervantes L. ↓, Mazatan O. ↑,
67', Garcia A. 🟨,
68', Gonzalez K. ↓, Escoto A. ↑,
68', Lopez F. ↓, Castro Garcia W. D. ↑,
69', Rios P. ↓, Trejo E. ↑,
72', 1 - 1, Escoto A. ⚽,
79', Reyes J. ↓, Moreno Villegas J. A. ↑,
80', Gutierrez G. 🟨,
81', Avila J. ↓, Machado J. ↑,
83', De Los Rios S. 🟨,
84', Guzman W. ↓, Samano Salgado F. ↑,
85', Samano Salgado F. 🟨,
86', Trejo E. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mineros de Zacatecas won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Mineros de Zacatecas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mineros de Zacatecas will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Mineros de Zacatecas won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 28:25. (average 1.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Mineros de Zacatecas won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:10. (average 2:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Zacatecas Mineros	11	5	2	4	23:19	4	17
16	Tepatitlan de Morelos	10	2	0	8	8:29	-21	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mineros de Zacatecas
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
25.04.26	Atlético Morelia - Mineros de Zacatecas	2:0 ✺
22.04.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Atlético Morelia	3:0 ✺
18.04.26	Irapuato - Mineros de Zacatecas	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Correcaminos UAT	3:1 ✺
04.04.26	Atlante - Mineros de Zacatecas	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWTWL
- Tepatitlán de Morelos
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
26.04.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlante	2:0 ✺
23.04.26	Atlante - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:0 ✺
10.04.26	Atlético La Paz - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:0 ✺
28.03.26	Cancún - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
08.03.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Mineros de Zacatecas	4:0
26.09.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Tepatitlán de Morelos	3:3
19.04.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:2
02.11.24	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Mineros de Zacatecas	1:1
15.02.24	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Mineros de Zacatecas	1:1
19.11.23	Mineros de Zacatecas - Tepatitlán de Morelos	5:2
16.11.23	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Mineros de Zacatecas	0:2

Upcoming Matches