Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Gregorio "Tepa" Gómez (Tepatitlán)

Referee: Ramirez Gutierrez E. A. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Tepatitlán de Morelos		Atlante

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.4	3.2	2.72
	2.49	3.33	2.92
	2.57	3.41	2.62	Watch
	2.4	3	2.75
	2.37	3.09	3.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.66)	3.21 ↓ (3.22)	2.82 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tepatitlán de Morelos
38%

Draw
29%

Atlante
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

28.6%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

27.7%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tepatitlán de Morelos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Atlante has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tepatitlán de Morelos than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlante than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlante Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gutierrez G. (C) 22. Aguilar D. 26. Dominguez I. 7. Escoto A. 18. Gomez J. 10. Guzman W. 19. Islas O. 2. Pinela M. 11. Reyes J. 6. Ruiz A. 23. Venegas J.	26. Beltran R. (G) 22. Calzadilla L. 6. Carrera J. N. 15. Charcopa J. 3. Cruz D. 27. Escobar A. 13. Garcia Pardo M. 19. Gonzalez S. 21. Ibarra J. 34. Jimenez E. 5. Meza H. (C)
Substitutes
151. De La Torre K. 12. Gonzalez C. (G) 13. Gonzalez Calderon L. A. 5. Gonzalez K. 140. Iniguez O. 33. Martinez A. 29. Mendoza B. 8. Samano Salgado F. 30. Talavera J.	1. Barragan R. (G) 18. Bermudez C. 7. Garcia M. 16. Gonzalez J. 8. Gonzalez R. 11. Hernandez I. 4. Olivas Salcedo L. A. 24. Pizzuto E. 9. Puente L. 20. Tovar J.
Coaches
Pereyra G.	Carbajal R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Gomez J. 🟨,
31', Escobar A. 🟨,
33', Charcopa J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Gonzalez S. ↓, Gonzalez R. ↑,
51', Gonzalez R. 🟨,
55', Gomez J. ↓, Mendoza B. ↑,
58', Garcia Pardo M. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
58', Ibarra J. ↓, Pizzuto E. ↑,
63', Venegas J. ↓, Gonzalez K. ↑,
66', 1 - 0, Escoto A. ⚽, Islas O. (A),
70', Calzadilla L. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
70', Charcopa J. ↓, Puente L. ↑,
73', Dominguez I. 🟨,
76', Beltran R. 🟨,
76', Gutierrez G. 🟨,
76', Islas O. 🟨,
76', Puente L. 🟨,
77', 🟨,
84', Islas O. ↓, De La Torre K. ↑,
84', Reyes J. ↓, Samano Salgado F. ↑,
90+6', 2 - 0, Aguilar D. (Penalty Awarded),
90+8', Jimenez E. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-2. Second leg.

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tepatitlán won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Atlante may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Tepatitlán won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:20. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Tepatitlán won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 1.1:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Tepatitlan de Morelos	10	2	0	8	8:29	-21	6

Last Results with these Odds

Tepatitlán de Morelos - the odds 2.66 are the expected chance of winning is 34.61%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tepatitlán de Morelos
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
23.04.26	Atlante - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:0 ✺
10.04.26	Atlético La Paz - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:0 ✺
28.03.26	Cancún - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:2 ✺
20.03.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Venados	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LTWTW
- Atlante FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
23.04.26	Atlante - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:0 ✺
17.04.26	Atlante - Atlético La Paz	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Cancún - Atlante	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Atlante - Mineros de Zacatecas	3:1 ✺
27.03.26	Venados - Atlante	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
23.04.26	Atlante - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:0
10.01.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlante	1:1
15.11.25	Atlante - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:1
12.11.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlante	1:0
02.08.25	Atlante - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:1
08.02.25	Atlante - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0
25.08.24	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlante	1:1

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