Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 22

Date: 21 August 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia (Mirassol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	Amazon Prime Video


	Mirassol		Botafogo SP

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.2	5.25	Watch
	1.72	3.2	5
	1.75	3.3	5
	1.78	3.26	5.79
	1.87	3.13	4.76	Watch
	1.67	3.3	5.5
	1.77	3.32	5.04	Watch
	1.75	3.3	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.62)	3.25 ↓ (3.4)	5.17 ↓ (6.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mirassol
53.2%

Draw
28.7%

Botafogo SP
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

27.4%

14.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.1%

25.9%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mirassol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Botafogo SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mirassol, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	5.6%	5.6%

Mirassol - Botafogo SP Predictions

Users Predictions: Mirassol will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Alex Muralha (G) 2. Alex Silva 34. Joao Victor 4. Luiz Otavio 37. Zeca 25. Neto Moura 10. Chico Kim 8. Danielzinho 27. Gabriel 7. Fernandinho 49. Dellatorre	1. Joao Carlos (G) 2. Lucas Dias 3. Fabio Sanches 4. Matheus Costa 7. Negueba 5. Joao Costa 8. Matheus Barbosa 6. Jean Victor (C) 10. Douglas Baggio 9. Alexandre Jesus 11. Victor Andrade
Substitutes
16. Bruno Matias 44. Henri 14. Isaque 77. Iury Castilho 20. Joao Pedro 99. Leo Gamalho 3. Lucas Gazal 98. Marquinhos 6. PH 32. Rodrigo Andrade 1. Vanderlei (G)	21. Abdulai S. 14. Bernardo Schappo 19. Bruno Marques 15. Carlos Manuel 13. Ericson 18. Fillipe Soutto 20. Gustavo Bochecha 12. Michael (G) 17. Ronald Camarao 16. Thassio
Coaches
Mozart	Gomes P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Neto Moura 🟨,
23', Lucas Dias 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Neto Moura ↓, Leo Gamalho ↑,
46', Chico Kim ↓, Iury Castilho ↑,
51', Matheus Barbosa 🟨,
61', 1 - 0, Fernandinho ⚽,
63', Joao Costa ↓, Abdulai S. ↑,
64', Danielzinho 🟨,
68', 1 - 1, Alexandre Jesus ⚽,
74', Fernandinho 🟥,
77', Dellatorre ↓, Rodrigo Andrade ↑,
83', Matheus Barbosa ↓, Gustavo Bochecha ↑,
85', 1 - 2, Douglas Baggio ⚽,
87', Matheus Costa 🟨,
89', Jean Victor ↓, Bernardo Schappo ↑,
90+3', Douglas Baggio 🟨,
90+5', Luiz Otavio 🟨,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A and 16).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Mirassol won 2.

Mirassol in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Botafogo SP is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Mirassol could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Mirassol is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Mirassol to win the game is with odds 1.64.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Mirassol won 8 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 26-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Mirassol won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 12-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie B
17.08.24	Ceará - Mirassol	1:2 ✺
09.08.24	Mirassol - Brusque	2:0 ✺
05.08.24	Chapecoense - Mirassol	0:1 ✺
27.07.24	Mirassol - Operário Ferroviario	1:0 ✺
23.07.24	Mirassol - Avaí	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WWWWT
- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
18.08.24	Botafogo SP - Paysandu	1:1 ✺
09.08.24	América Mineiro - Botafogo SP	3:1 ✺
03.08.24	Botafogo SP - Coritiba	2:0 ✺
30.07.24	Avaí - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
25.07.24	Ceará - Botafogo SP	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
07.05.24	Botafogo SP - Mirassol	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
17.02.24	Mirassol - Botafogo SP	2:1
Brazilian Serie B
09.09.23	Mirassol - Botafogo SP	1:0
23.05.23	Botafogo SP - Mirassol	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
22.01.23	Botafogo SP - Mirassol	1:1
Brazilian Serie C
19.09.22	Botafogo SP - Mirassol	1:1
27.08.22	Mirassol - Botafogo SP	1:0

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