Match Info

Paulista - Round 7

Date: 8 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena Capivari (Capivari)

Referee: dos Santos F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	HBO Max


	Capivariano		Mirassol

	1	X	2
	4	3.3	1.9	Watch
	4.33	3.3	1.85
	3.8	3.3	1.92
	4.15	3.46	1.91
	3.98	3.45	1.91	Watch
	3.8	3.1	1.85
	3.98	3.28	1.84	Watch
	4	3.4	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.01 ↓ (4.97)	3.32 ↑ (2.94)	1.89 ↑ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Capivariano
23.1%

Draw
27.9%

Mirassol
49%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.5%

31.2%

50.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.9%

30.1%

52.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Capivariano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Mirassol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Capivariano than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Capivariano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Capivariano - Mirassol Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Guilherme Nogueira (G) 2. Ricardo Cerqueira 3. Octavio 4. Wendel Lomar 6. Leonan Santos 8. Thiago Moraes 5. Bruno Silva (C) 7. Carlos Eduardo 10. Ravanelli 17. Baianinho 9. Vinicius Popo	23. Alex Muralha (G) 97. Rodrigues 2. Lucas Oliveira 4. Luiz Otavio 14. Igor Carius 5. Yuri Lara 10. Chico Kim 7. Shaylon 26. Lucas Mugni (C) 17. Everton Galdino 27. Galeano A.
Substitutes
18. Bastos R. 20. Cassio Gabriel 14. Diogo Mateus 11. Felipe Azevedo 19. Joao Borges (G) 24. Leandrinho 13. Lucas Dias 23. Matheus Guilherme 21. Mike 16. Tarcisio 1. Teixeira M. (G) 15. Vinicius Guedes	47. Bacchi V. 96. Carlos Eduardo 45. Caua Soares V. 8. Denilson 35. Fernando de Freitas Junior L. 53. Marcelinho 9. Nathan Fogaca 78. Renato Marques 70. Rodrigo Rodrigues 90. Thomazella (G)
Coaches
Sizenando E.	Rafael Guanaes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Yuri Lara 🟨,
31', 1 - 0, Vinicius Popo ⚽,
41', Ravanelli 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Shaylon ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
46', Yuri Lara ↓, Denilson ↑,
46', Everton Galdino ↓, Nathan Fogaca ↑,
46', Ravanelli ↓, Felipe Azevedo ↑,
54', Luiz Otavio 🟨,
58', Luiz Otavio ↓, Rodrigo Rodrigues ↑,
68', Bruno Silva ↓, Vinicius Guedes ↑,
70', Denilson 🟨,
72', Lucas Mugni 🟨,
74', Lucas Mugni ↓, Renato Marques ↑,
76', Baianinho ↓, Mike ↑,
76', Leonan Santos ↓, Tarcisio ↑,
82', Igor Carius 🟨,
83', Carlos Eduardo ↓, Lucas Dias ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 9).

Capivariano has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mirassol is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mirassol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Mirassol is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Mirassol: Andre Luis (Inactive) Daniel Borges (Inactive) Edson Carioca (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Capivariano: Bastos R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Mirassol: Renato Marques (Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Capivariano FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
05.02.26	Corinthians - Capivariano	3:0 ✺
25.01.26	Capivariano - EC Primavera	1:2 ✺
21.01.26	EC Noroeste - Capivariano	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Capivariano - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
13.01.26	Capivariano - Portuguesa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LLTWW
- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Remo - Mirassol	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
02.02.26	Mirassol - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.01.26	Mirassol - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
24.01.26	São Bernardo - Mirassol	0:4 ✺
21.01.26	Mirassol - Red Bull Bragantino	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TTWWT

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