Match Info

J1 League - Round 4

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Best Denki Stadium (Mito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Japan	DAZN Japan
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Mito HollyHock		Machida Zelvia

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.4	1.76	Watch
	4.10	3.40	1.88
	4.55	3.3	1.78	Watch
	4.74	3.6	1.86
	4.56	3.49	1.83	Watch
	4.55	3.5	1.8
	4.51	3.5	1.85	Watch
	4.6	3.4	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.55 ↑ (3.88)	3.45 ↑ (3.23)	1.82 ↓ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mito HollyHock
20.8%

Draw
27.4%

Machida Zelvia
51.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.4%

29.3%

46.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mito HollyHock has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Machida Zelvia's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.2%	18.7%	75%

Mito HollyHock - Machida Zelvia Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Mito HollyHock will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 12 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Machida Zelvia: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (2.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Nishikawa K. (G) 25. Mase T. 15. Kimoto Y. 17. Itakura K. 7. Omori S. 11. Torikai Y. 19. Semba T. 20. Funabashi Y. 22. Taniguchi K. 18. Uchino K. 10. Watanabe A. (C)	1. Tani K. (G) 3. Shoji G. (C) 50. Okamura D. 5. Dresevic I. 88. Nakamura H. 16. Mae H. 31. Lavi N. 33. Akimoto T. 15. Duke M. 7. Soma Y. 99. Yengi T.
Substitutes
50. Ieizumi R. 8. Kato C. 4. Kawazura A. 21. Matsubara S. (G) 9. Nemoto R. 33. Patryck 16. Tamura Y. 39. Yamamoto H. 53. Yamashita S.	4. Kikuchi R. 14. Matsuo Y. 6. Mochizuki H. 13. Morita T. (G) 20. Nishimura T. 9. Ogawa K. 8. Sento K. 18. Shimoda H. 23. Shirasaki R.
Coaches
Kimori D.	Kuroda G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
27', 1 - 0, Watanabe A. ⚽,
33', 1 - 1, Soma Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Duke M. ↓, Nishimura T. ↑,
75', Watanabe A. ↓, Kato C. ↑,
82', Lavi N. ↓, Shimoda H. ↑,
82', Yengi T. ↓, Ogawa K. ↑,
84', Uchino K. ↓, Nemoto R. ↑,
88', Dresevic I. ↓, Matsuo Y. ↑,
90', Funabashi Y. ↓, Yamamoto H. ↑,
90', Taniguchi K. ↓, Patryck ↑,
90', Torikai Y. ↓, Yamashita S. ↑,
90+5', Ogawa K. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mito HollyHock won 1.

Mito HollyHock may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Machida Zelvia will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Mito HollyHock: Hayakawa U. (Knee Injury) Iwasaki H. (Inactive) Osaki K. (Inactive)

There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Ogawa K. (Head Injury)

There are questionable in Mito HollyHock: Kamiyama M. (Finger Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Mito HollyHock won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 27:26. (average 1.5:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Mito HollyHock won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:10. (average 1.8:1.1).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Mito: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Machida	4	3	1	0	13:3	10	10
11	Mito	4	1	2	1	6:5	1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Machida Zelvia - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 46.35%, but this team recently wins 53% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mito HollyHock
Japan J1 League
22.08.26	Kyoto Sanga - Mito HollyHock	1:3 ✺
15.08.26	Mito HollyHock - Gamba Osaka	1:1 ✺
08.08.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Mito HollyHock	2:1 ✺
06.06.26	Mito HollyHock - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:1 ✺
30.05.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Mito HollyHock	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WTLLL
- Machida Zelvia
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Machida Zelvia - Grulla Morioka	3:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
23.08.26	Machida Zelvia - Urawa Red Diamonds	3:1 ✺
15.08.26	JEF United Chiba - Machida Zelvia	0:4 ✺
08.08.26	Tokyo - Machida Zelvia	1:5 ✺
06.06.26	Machida Zelvia - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
29.04.26	Mito HollyHock - Machida Zelvia	2:3 penalties
14.02.26	Machida Zelvia - Mito HollyHock	3:2 penalties
Japan J2 League
24.06.23	Mito HollyHock - Machida Zelvia	1:1
12.03.23	Machida Zelvia - Mito HollyHock	3:0
06.07.22	Machida Zelvia - Mito HollyHock	2:3
08.05.22	Mito HollyHock - Machida Zelvia	0:0
11.07.21	Machida Zelvia - Mito HollyHock	2:1

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