Match Info

Serie B - Round 18

Date: 26 December 2025, Friday

Location: Stadio Alberto Braglia (Modena)

Referee: Bonacina K. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Slovenia	Sport TV1
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV, Fox Soccer Plus, Fox
World	Onefootball


	Modena		Monza

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.95	2.95	Watch
	2.48	2.88	3	Watch
	2.49	2.9	3.15	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.9
	2.63	3.03	2.93	Watch
	2.54	2.85	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.4)	2.92 ↓ (2.97)	3.01 ↓ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Modena
37%

Draw
32%

Monza
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

31.2%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

30.5%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Modena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Monza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Modena than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monza than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	66.7%	16.7%

Modena - Monza Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Modena will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Monza will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 64.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 42% – 87.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Monza (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Monza (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Monza (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Chichizola L. (G) 77. Tonoli D. 28. Adorni D. 20. Nieling B. 98. Zanimacchia L. 8. Santoro S. 16. Gerli F. (C) 5. Sersanti A. 7. Zampano F. 17. Massolin Y. 9. Gliozzi E.	20. Thiam D. (G) 4. Izzo A. 13. Ravanelli L. 44. Carboni A. 19. Birindelli S. 21. Colombo L. 32. Pessina M. (C) 7. Azzi P. 26. Ciurria P. 17. Balde K. 47. Mota D.
Substitutes
78. Bagheria F. (G) 2. Beyuku G. 33. Cauz C. 29. Cotali M. 25. Dellavalle A. 23. Di Mariano F. 6. Magnino L. 11. Mendes P. 19. Nador S. 4. Pergreffi A. 22. Pezzolato M. (G) 18. Pyyhtia N.	25. Alvarez A. 24. Bakoune A. 2. Brorsson A. 27. Capolupo S. 15. Delli Carri F. 3. Lucchesi L. 9. Maric M. 52. Mout M. 37. Petagna A. 1. Pizzignacco S. (G) 16. Sardo J. 43. Strajnar A. (G)
Coaches
Sottil A.	Bianco P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', Adorni D. 🟨,
18', Balde K. 🟨,
39', Izzo A. 🟨,
40', 1 - 0, Gliozzi E. (Penalty Awarded),
44', Zampano F. 🟨,
44', Pessina M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
50', 1 - 1, Azzi P. ⚽, Mota D. (A),
64', Zampano F. ↓, Beyuku G. ↑,
65', 1 - 2, Ravanelli L. ⚽, Balde K. (A),
74', Sersanti A. ↓, Pyyhtia N. ↑,
74', Massolin Y. ↓, Mendes P. ↑,
79', Birindelli S. ↓, Bakoune A. ↑,
80', Santoro S. ↓, Magnino L. ↑,
80', Zanimacchia L. ↓, Di Mariano F. ↑,
87', Ciurria P. 🟨,
89', Ciurria P. ↓, Lucchesi L. ↑,
90', Mota D. ↓, Petagna A. ↑,
90+1', Tonoli D. 🟨,
90+4', Balde K. ↓, Brorsson A. ↑,
90+4', Colombo L. ↓, Delli Carri F. ↑,
90+4', Sottil A. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

Modena is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Monza has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Modena could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Modena: Defrel G. (Inactive) Ponsi F. (Inactive)

There will not play in Monza: Antov V. (Knee Injury) Caprari G. (Inactive) Colpani A. (Inactive) Forson O. (Knee Injury) Zeroli K. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Modena: Dellavalle A. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Modena won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Including home match between the teams, Modena won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
20.12.25	Modena - Venezia	1:2 ✺
13.12.25	Spezia - Modena	0:2 ✺
08.12.25	Modena - Catanzaro	1:2 ✺
28.11.25	Cesena - Modena	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Modena - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLLT
- Monza 1912
Italian Serie B
20.12.25	Monza - Carrarese	4:1 ✺
13.12.25	Venezia - Monza	2:0 ✺
08.12.25	Monza - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Juve Stabia - Monza	2:2 ✺
23.11.25	Monza - Cesena	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia
16.08.14	Modena - Monza	1:0 penalties

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