Match Info

Serie B - Round 16

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Alberto Picco (La Spezia)

Referee: Perri M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Spezia		Modena

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.2	2.15	Watch
	3.3	3.1	2.2	Watch
	3.71	3.04	2.29
	3.55	3.23	2.12	Watch
	3.4	2.9	2.2
	3.45	3.02	2.24	Watch
	3.5	3	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.49 ↑ (2.88)	3.07 ↑ (3)	2.21 ↓ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spezia
26.9%

Draw
30.6%

Modena
42.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

30.8%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

30.2%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Spezia's form might have worsened.

Modena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Modena's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Modena than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.4%	5.9%	64.7%

Spezia - Modena Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Spezia will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). Modena will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Modena: 42% – 87.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Spezia (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Modena will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Spezia (votes: 1 - 20%). Modena (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Mascardi D. (G) 37. Mateju A. 2. Wisniewski P. 11. Beruatto P. 8. Nagy A. 23. Candela A. 6. Fellipe Jack 80. Kouda R. 25. Bandinelli F. 99. Vlahovic V. 9. Artistico G.	1. Chichizola L. (G) 77. Tonoli D. 28. Adorni D. 20. Nieling B. 2. Beyuku G. 18. Pyyhtia N. 16. Gerli F. 8. Santoro S. 7. Zampano F. 17. Massolin Y. 11. Mendes P.
Substitutes
36. Candelari P. 15. Cistana A. 34. Comotto C. 20. Di Serio G. 5. Esposito Sa. 85. Guidi S. (G) 55. Hristov P. 10. Lapadula G. 16. Loria L. (G) 26. Onofri M. 27. Soleri E.	78. Bagheria F. (G) 10. Caso G. 33. Cauz C. 92. Defrel G. 25. Dellavalle A. 23. Di Mariano F. 9. Gliozzi E. 6. Magnino L. 19. Nador S. 4. Pergreffi A. 5. Sersanti A. 98. Zanimacchia L.
Coaches
Donadoni R.	Sottil A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Nieling B. ⚽,
25', Fellipe Jack 🟨,
37', Pyyhtia N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Massolin Y. 🟨,
61', Nagy A. ↓, Candelari P. ↑,
68', Pyyhtia N. ↓, Sersanti A. ↑,
68', Fellipe Jack 🟨,
72', Bandinelli F. 🟨,
73', Kouda R. ↓, Hristov P. ↑,
73', Vlahovic V. ↓, Di Serio G. ↑,
76', Massolin Y. ↓, Defrel G. ↑,
86', Beruatto P. ↓, Esposito Sa. ↑,
86', Artistico G. ↓, Soleri E. ↑,
88', Santoro S. ↓, Magnino L. ↑,
88', Mendes P. ↓, Gliozzi E. ↑,
90', 0 - 2, Gliozzi E. ⚽, Defrel G. (A),
90+2', Tonoli D. 🟨,
90+5', Zampano F. 🟨,
90+8', Esposito Sa. 🟨,
90+8', Magnino L. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Spezia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Modena might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Spezia: Cassata F. (Yellow Cards) Di Serio G. (Injury) Esposito Sa. (Hamstring Injury) Sarr M. (Ankle Injury) Zurkowski S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Modena: Cotali M. (Inactive) Ponsi F. (Inactive)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 0.9:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Spezia won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:5. (average 1.6:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie B
08.12.25	Virtus Entella - Spezia	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Spezia - Sampdoria	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Mantova - Spezia	4:1 ✺
07.11.25	Spezia - Bari	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Monza - Spezia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWLTL
- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
08.12.25	Modena - Catanzaro	1:2 ✺
28.11.25	Cesena - Modena	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Modena - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:0 ✺
08.11.25	Frosinone - Modena	2:2 ✺
02.11.25	Modena - Juve Stabia	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
15.02.25	Modena - Spezia	1:1
02.11.24	Spezia - Modena	1:0
25.02.24	Modena - Spezia	0:0
26.12.23	Spezia - Modena	1:1
Coppa Italia
06.08.16	Spezia - Modena	1:0
Italian Serie B
12.03.16	Spezia - Modena	2:0
27.10.15	Modena - Spezia	1:1

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