Match Info

Serie B - Round 7

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Alberto Braglia (Modena)

Referee: Turrini N. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Modena		Virtus Entella

	1	X	2
	1.79	3.3	4.5	Watch
	1.8	3.3	4.6
	1.82	3.2	4.45
	1.88	3.36	4.82
	1.85	3.17	4.67	Watch
	1.87	3.28	4.38	Watch
	1.77	3.4	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.09)	3.29 ↓ (3.3)	4.59 ↑ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Modena
51.2%

Draw
28.4%

Virtus Entella
20.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

28.4%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

27.9%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Modena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Modena's performance.

Virtus Entella has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Virtus Entella might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Modena than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Modena that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Virtus Entella than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Virtus Entella could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.6%	7.4%	0%

Modena - Virtus Entella Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Modena (1.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Modena (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Modena will win (25 of 27 users predict this - 92.59%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.71% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Modena will win (15 of 15 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Modena (votes: 17 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Chichizola L. (G) 77. Tonoli D. 28. Adorni D. 20. Nieling B. 7. Zampano F. 18. Pyyhtia N. 16. Gerli F. (C) 8. Santoro S. 98. Zanimacchia L. 23. Di Mariano F. 9. Gliozzi E.	1. Colombi S. (G) 23. Parodi L. (C) 6. Tiritiello A. 15. Marconi I. 94. Mezzoni F. 27. Dalla Vecchia M. 50. Benali A. 24. Franzoni A. 26. Di Mario S. 7. Bariti D. 19. Debenedetti A.
Substitutes
10. Caso G. 33. Cauz C. 29. Cotali M. 92. Defrel G. 25. Dellavalle A. 6. Magnino L. 17. Massolin Y. 11. Mendes P. 19. Nador S. 22. Pezzolato M. (G) 3. Ponsi F. 5. Sersanti A.	45. Ankeye D. 77. Boccadamo A. 22. Del Frate F. (G) 57. Del Lungo T. 20. Fumagalli T. 8. Karic N. 5. Lipani J. 42. Moretti L. 4. Nichetti M. 90. Portanova D. 80. Rinaldini R. (G) 21. Russo F.
Coaches
Sottil A.	Chiappella A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', Santoro S. 🟨,
62', Di Mariano F. ↓, Mendes P. ↑,
62', Pyyhtia N. ↓, Sersanti A. ↑,
66', 1 - 0, Gliozzi E. (Pen),
73', Zanimacchia L. ↓, Cotali M. ↑,
73', Gliozzi E. ↓, Defrel G. ↑,
73', Bariti D. ↓, Fumagalli T. ↑,
81', Dalla Vecchia M. ↓, Russo F. ↑,
81', Parodi L. ↓, Del Lungo T. ↑,
89', Santoro S. ↓, Magnino L. ↑,
89', Di Mario S. ↓, Boccadamo A. ↑,
90', Debenedetti A. ↓, Ankeye D. ↑,
90', 2 - 0, Mendes P. ⚽, Magnino L. (A),

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Modena won 1.

Modena is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Virtus Entella has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Modena may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Modena is the team to beat.

There will not play in Modena: Beyuku G. (International duty) Strizzolo L. (Inactive)

There will not play in Virtus Entella: Guiu B. (Inactive) Russo F. (Inactive) Siaulys O. (Inactive)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Modena won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Modena won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
01.10.25	Carrarese - Modena	0:0 ✺
28.09.25	Modena - Pescara	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	Mantova - Modena	1:3 ✺
13.09.25	Modena - Bari	3:0 ✺
31.08.25	Modena - Avellino	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TWWWT
- Virtus Entella
Italian Serie B
30.09.25	Virtus Entella - Bari	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Avellino - Virtus Entella	2:0 ✺
21.09.25	Padova - Virtus Entella	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Virtus Entella - Mantova	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Cesena - Virtus Entella	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
30.01.22	Virtus Entella - Modena	0:2
25.09.21	Modena - Virtus Entella	1:2
Italian Serie B
16.04.16	Virtus Entella - Modena	1:0
28.11.15	Modena - Virtus Entella	0:1
06.06.15	Modena - Virtus Entella	1:1
30.05.15	Virtus Entella - Modena	2:2
11.04.15	Modena - Virtus Entella	2:0

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