Match Info

J2 League - Round 10

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday

Location: ND Soft Stadium Yamagata (Tendo)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Montedio Yamagata		Vegalta Sendai

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.5	1.81	Watch
	3.50	3.25	1.88
	3.65	3.4	1.88	Watch
	3.92	3.9	1.93
	3.64	3.75	1.92	Watch
	3.6	3.85	1.89
	3.95	3.54	1.88	Watch
	3.7	3.5	1.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.73 ↑ (3.38)	3.59 ↓ (3.69)	1.89 ↓ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montedio Yamagata
24.9%

Draw
25.9%

Vegalta Sendai
49.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.4%

25.2%

47.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.6%

24.4%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montedio Yamagata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Vegalta Sendai has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montedio Yamagata than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vegalta Sendai than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Montedio Yamagata - Vegalta Sendai Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Sendai will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Sato R. (G) 15. Kawai A. 2. Lee Dong-Hee 38. Morioka R. 5. Sugii H. 17. Terayama T. 8. Doi S. 7. Nakamura R. 10. Kida R. 9. Takahashi J. 77. Kawana R.	33. Hayashi A. (G) 22. Takada R. 5. Sugata M. 19. Mateus Moraes 3. Okuyama M. 37. Sugiyama Y. 8. Takeda H. 80. Asakura R. 14. Sagara R. 27. Iwabuchi H. 18. Umeki T.
Substitutes
11. Disaro A. S. 55. Horikane S. 39. Mori K. 13. Nodake H. 49. Sakamoto K. 1. Shibuya T. (G) 14. Yanagimachi K. 18. Yokoyama R. 20. Yoshio Kaina	47. Araki S. 55. Han Ho-gang 1. Hotta D. (G) 10. Kamada H. 11. Kobayashi K. 17. Kudo A. 6. Matsui R. 15. Minami S. 9. Miyazaki K.
Coaches
Yokouchi A.	Moriyama Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', Sugata M. 🟨,
26', 0 - 1, Asakura R. ⚽,
33', Lee Dong-Hee 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Morioka R. 🟨,
66', Terayama T. ↓, Nodake H. ↑,
66', Kida R. ↓, Yanagimachi K. ↑,
66', Lee Dong-Hee ↓, Sakamoto K. ↑,
68', Sagara R. ↓, Minami S. ↑,
68', Iwabuchi H. ↓, Kamada H. ↑,
69', Minami S. 🟨,
76', Umeki T. ↓, Miyazaki K. ↑,
76', Okuyama M. ↓, Matsui R. ↑,
82', Takahashi J. ↓, Disaro A. S. ↑,
86', Kawana R. ↓, Horikane S. ↑,
90+1', Takeda H. ↓, Kudo A. ↑,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 12th and 2nd in the Promotion - J1 League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montedio Yamagata won 0.

Montedio Yamagata is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Sendai is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Montedio Yamagata could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Sendai is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Montedio Yamagata has recorded 2 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:26 (averaging 1.3:1.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Montedio Yamagata against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 11:11 goals (averaging 1.8:1.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	10	7	2	1	18:8	10	23
13	Montedio Yamagata	10	4	0	6	11:9	2	12

Last Results with these Odds

Vegalta Sendai - the odds 1.96 are the expected chance of winning is 47.4%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montedio Yamagata
Japan J2 League
03.10.26	Oita Trinita - Montedio Yamagata	2:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Montedio Yamagata - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:2 ✺
Japan J2 League
26.09.26	Montedio Yamagata - Sagan Tosu	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	Montedio Yamagata - Kataller Toyama	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Albirex Niigata - Montedio Yamagata	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLWLL
- Vegalta Sendai
Japan J2 League
04.10.26	Vegalta Sendai - Júbilo Iwata	2:1 ✺
26.09.26	Iwaki - Vegalta Sendai	0:2 ✺
20.09.26	Tochigi City - Vegalta Sendai	1:3 ✺
13.09.26	Vegalta Sendai - Consadole Sapporo	1:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
09.09.26	Fukushima United - Vegalta Sendai	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 J3 League
25.04.26	Vegalta Sendai - Montedio Yamagata	1:0
22.03.26	Montedio Yamagata - Vegalta Sendai	0:1
Japan J2 League
20.09.25	Vegalta Sendai - Montedio Yamagata	3:1
15.06.25	Montedio Yamagata - Vegalta Sendai	3:4
22.06.24	Montedio Yamagata - Vegalta Sendai	1:1
13.04.24	Vegalta Sendai - Montedio Yamagata	2:0
01.07.23	Montedio Yamagata - Vegalta Sendai	4:1

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