Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 1 - Round 19

Date: 26 January 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadium Municipal (Toulouse)

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 8, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 10, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Voyo
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN 4, DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
India	GXR World
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Caliente TV App
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 8
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Disney+


	Toulouse		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.9	5	Watch
	1.66	3.9	5
	1.68	3.95	4.9
	1.7	4.05	5.24
	1.69	4.07	5.09	Watch
	1.67	3.9	4.8
	1.72	3.92	5.16	Watch
	1.68	3.95	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.6)	3.96 ↓ (4)	5.01 ↑ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 1 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS Xtra En Español

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
56.8%

Draw
24.2%

Montpellier
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

23.3%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

22.9%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.4%	17.9%	35.7%

Toulouse - Montpellier Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 13 - 50%). Montpellier will win (votes: 9 - 34.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toulouse: 30.8% – 69.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Restes G. (G) 29. Canvot J. 4. Cresswell C. 3. McKenzie M. 15. Donnum A. 5. Genreau D. 23. Casseres C. 17. Suazo G. (C) 7. Aboukhlal Z. 10. Gboho Y. 13. King J.	40. Lecomte B. (C) 4. Kouyate K. 27. Omeragic B. 5. Sagnan M. 29. Tchato E. 19. Nzingoula R. 13. Chotard J. 3. Sylla I. 11. Savanier T. 9. Tamari M. 10. Khazri W.
Substitutes
6. Akdag U. 80. Babicka S. 31. Edjouma N. 16. Haug K. (G) 12. Kamanzi W. 9. Magri F. 22. Messali R. 39. Saka M. 21. Zajc M.	15. Bares G. 16. Bertaud D. (G) 44. Chennahi T. 70. Coulibaly T. 22. Fayad K. 14. Maamma O. 47. Mouanga Y. 17. Sainte-Luce T. 20. Toure B.
Coaches
Martinez C.	Gasset J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Sylla I. ↓, Sainte-Luce T. ↑,
17', Nzingoula R. 🟨,
41', Chotard J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
47', Canvot J. 🟨,
59', 1 - 0, Casseres C. ⚽, King J. (A),
61', Nzingoula R. ↓, Fayad K. ↑,
61', Khazri W. ↓, Maamma O. ↑,
62', 1 - 1, Sagnan M. ⚽,
69', King J. ↓, Babicka S. ↑,
76', Genreau D. ↓, Zajc M. ↑,
83', 1 - 2, Maamma O. ⚽, Savanier T. (A),
85', Donnum A. ↓, Magri F. ↑,
85', Canvot J. ↓, Messali R. ↑,
89', Omeragic B. ↓, Toure B. ↑,
89', Tamari M. ↓, Coulibaly T. ↑,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 9 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Toulouse won 2.

Toulouse is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Montpellier is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Montpellier could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Toulouse is a favorite.

There will not play in Toulouse: Nicolaisen R. (Ankle Injury) Schmidt N. (Knee Injury) Sidibe D. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Sierro V. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Montpellier: Ferri J. (Red Card) Gueguin A. (Ribs Injury) Jullien C. (Knee Injury) Maksimovic N. (Thigh Injury) Mincarelli L. (Injury) Toure B. (Muscle Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Toulouse won 9 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 22:27 (average 1.1:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Toulouse won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12:8 (average 1.3:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
18.01.25	Lyon - Toulouse	0:0 ✺
Coupe De France
15.01.25	Toulouse - Laval	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
12.01.25	Toulouse - Strasbourg	1:2 ✺
05.01.25	Lens - Toulouse	0:1 ✺
Coupe De France
21.12.24	Hauts Lyonnais - Toulouse	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 TWLWW
- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 1
17.01.25	Montpellier - Monaco	2:1 ✺
12.01.25	Montpellier - Angers	1:3 ✺
04.01.25	Lyon - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
21.12.24	Le Puy - Montpellier	4:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
15.12.24	Montpellier - Nice	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
27.10.24	Montpellier - Toulouse	0:3
03.05.24	Toulouse - Montpellier	1:2
29.10.23	Montpellier - Toulouse	3:0
Club Friendly
15.07.23	Montpellier - Toulouse	3:1
French Ligue 1
09.04.23	Montpellier - Toulouse	1:2
02.10.22	Toulouse - Montpellier	4:2
23.05.20	Toulouse - Montpellier	Canceled

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