Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 1 - Round 9

Date: 27 October 2024, Sunday

Location: Stade de la Mosson (Montpellier)

Referee: Leonard T. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5, Moja TV
Canada	beIN Connect
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Voyo
France	DAZN 1, DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
India	GXR World
Japan	DAZN Japan
Russia	Okko Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Usa	beIN Connect
World	Disney+, Fanatiz


	Montpellier		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.7	2.1	Watch
	3.25	3.6	2.1
	3.2	3.7	2.12	Watch
	3.44	3.7	2.17
	3.41	3.7	2.12	Watch
	3.3	3.7	2.1
	3.18	3.8	2.21	Watch
	3.2	3.7	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.27 ↑ (3.06)	3.7 ↑ (3.56)	2.13 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 1 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS 4

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
29.2%

Draw
25.9%

Toulouse
44.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.3%

26.9%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

25.9%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.6%	25.9%	44.4%

Montpellier - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Montpellier will win (votes: 8 - 30.8%). Toulouse will win (votes: 12 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toulouse: 27% – 65.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Lecomte B. (G) 77. Sacko F. 47. Mouanga Y. 5. Sagnan M. 3. Sylla I. 19. Nzingoula R. 12. Ferri J. 10. Khazri W. 11. Savanier T. 7. Nordin A. 8. Adams A.	50. Restes G. (G) 19. Sidibe D. 4. Cresswell C. 3. McKenzie M. 12. Kamanzi W. 23. Casseres C. 8. Sierro V. (C) 15. Donnum A. 7. Aboukhlal Z. 10. Gboho Y. 13. King J.
Substitutes
15. Bares G. 16. Bertaud D. (G) 70. Coulibaly T. 38. Gueguin A. 14. Maamma O. 21. Mincarelli L. 41. Ndiaye J. 29. Tchato E. 20. Toure B.	6. Akdag U. 80. Babicka S. 30. Dominguez A. (G) 5. Genreau D. 9. Magri F. 22. Messali R. 20. Schmidt N. 17. Suazo G. 21. Zajc M.
Coaches
Gasset J.	Martinez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
5', 0 - 1, Aboukhlal Z. ⚽, King J. (A),
8', 0 - 2, Aboukhlal Z. ⚽, Sidibe D. (A),
27', 0 - 3, King J. ⚽, Aboukhlal Z. (A),
45+2', Nordin A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Savanier T. 🟥,
59', Casseres C. 🟨,
60', Nzingoula R. ↓, Al-Tamari M. ↑,
61', Khazri W. ↓, Toure B. ↑,
61', Nordin A. ↓, Maamma O. ↑,
64', King J. ↓, Magri F. ↑,
66', McKenzie M. 🟨,
71', Sagnan M. ↓, Tchato E. ↑,
78', Gboho Y. ↓, Genreau D. ↑,
78', Casseres C. ↓, Zajc M. ↑,
84', Sierro V. ↓, Schmidt N. ↑,
84', Aboukhlal Z. ↓, Babicka S. ↑,
85', Ferri J. ↓, Bares G. ↑,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 16 in the zone Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 3.

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Toulouse will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Montpellier: Dzodic S. (Red Card) Fayad K. (Injury) Issoufou Y. (Thigh Injury) Jullien C. (Knee Injury) Kouyate K. (Surgery) Omeragic B. (Injury)

There are questionable in Montpellier: Al-Tamari M. (Injury) Chotard J. (Thigh Injury) Sainte-Luce T. (Injury)

There are questionable in Toulouse: Nicolaisen R. (Ankle Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 9 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 29:21 (average 1.5:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Montpellier won 7 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 19:7 (average 1.9:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 1
20.10.24	Montpellier - Olympique Marseille	0:5 ✺
06.10.24	Reims - Montpellier	4:2 ✺
28.09.24	Monaco - Montpellier	2:1 ✺
22.09.24	Montpellier - Auxerre	3:2 ✺
15.09.24	Rennes - Montpellier	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLWL
- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
20.10.24	Toulouse - Angers	1:1 ✺
05.10.24	Lille - Toulouse	2:1 ✺
29.09.24	Toulouse - Lyon	1:2 ✺
22.09.24	Brest - Toulouse	2:0 ✺
15.09.24	Toulouse - Le Havre	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
03.05.24	Toulouse - Montpellier	1:2
29.10.23	Montpellier - Toulouse	3:0
Club Friendly
15.07.23	Montpellier - Toulouse	3:1
French Ligue 1
09.04.23	Montpellier - Toulouse	1:2
02.10.22	Toulouse - Montpellier	4:2
23.05.20	Toulouse - Montpellier	Canceled
10.11.19	Montpellier - Toulouse	3:0

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