Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 1 - Round 6

Date: 28 September 2024, Saturday

Location: Stade Louis II (Monaco)

Referee: Bollengier M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, StarTimes App, TV5 Monde Africa, TV5 Monde Maghreb-Orient
Argentina	ESPN 4
Armenia	Fast Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD, TV5 Monde Asia
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, TV5
Chile	ESPN 4
China	QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN 4
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Voyo
France	DAZN 1, DAZN France, TV5 Monde Europe
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
India	GXR World
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 2
Mexico	Caliente TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Philippines	Cignal Play
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 4, CANAL+ Sport, Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV5
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-america	ESPN 4 South, TV5 Monde Amerique Latine
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, DAZN Espana
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 5
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, DAZN USA, TV5 Monde
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+, Fanatiz


	Monaco		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	1.22	6.5	11	Watch
	1.24	6.75	10.5
	1.23	6.4	12
	1.25	6.9	10.85
	1.25	6.66	11.57	Watch
	1.22	7	11
	1.23	8.05	12.6	Watch
	1.23	6.4	12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.44)	6.83 ↑ (4.75)	11.44 ↑ (6.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Network on TV: beIN SPORTS En Español

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Current Win Probability

Monaco
77.6%

Draw
14%

Montpellier
8.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.1%

20.1%

13.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.9%

18.5%

12.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monaco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Monaco's performance.

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Montpellier might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Monaco that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.1%	8.9%	0%

Monaco - Montpellier Predictions

Users Predictions: Monaco will win (51 of 56 users predict this - 91.07%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.6% – 98.54%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Kohn P. (G) 2. Vanderson 17. Singo W. 22. Salisu M. 12. Caio Henrique 11. Akliouche M. 6. Zakaria D. (C) 10. Golovin A. 7. Ben Seghir E. 9. Balogun F. 36. Embolo B.	16. Bertaud D. (G) 77. Sacko F. 27. Omeragic B. 5. Sagnan M. 21. Mincarelli L. 19. Nzingoula R. 22. Fayad K. 7. Nordin A. 11. Savanier T. (C) 70. Coulibaly T. 8. Adams A.
Substitutes
15. Camara L. 27. Diatta K. 21. Ilenikhena G. 5. Kehrer T. 50. Lienard Y. (G) 8. Matazo E. 13. Mawissa Elebi C. 20. Ouattara K. 4. Teze J.	15. Bares G. 44. Chennahi T. 45. Dzodic S. 10. Khazri W. 40. Lecomte B. (G) 3. Sylla I. 29. Tchato E. 20. Toure B.
Coaches
Hutter A.	Der Zakarian M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', Sagnan M. 🟨,
12', Coulibaly T. 🟨,
16', 0 - 1, Nzingoula R. ⚽, Adams A. (A),
32', 1 - 1, Balogun F. ⚽, Embolo B. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Vanderson 🟨,
50', Zakaria D. 🟨,
54', Sacko F. ↓, Tchato E. ↑,
67', Akliouche M. ↓, Ilenikhena G. ↑,
67', Ben Seghir E. ↓, Camara L. ↑,
68', Nzingoula R. ↓, Toure B. ↑,
74', Nordin A. ↓, Khazri W. ↑,
78', Caio Henrique ↓, Ouattara K. ↑,
78', Vanderson ↓, Teze J. ↑,
82', Salisu M. 🟨,
88', Camara L. 🟨,
90', Adams A. ↓, Sylla I. ↑,
90+2', Coulibaly T. 🟨,
90+8', 2 - 1, Camara L. ⚽, Embolo B. (A),

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 16 in the zone Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Monaco won 3.

Monaco in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Montpellier is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Montpellier could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Monaco is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Monaco: Coulibaly M. (Knee Injury) Diop E. (Broken Leg) Majecki R. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Montpellier: Al-Tamari M. (Injury) Chotard J. (Muscle Injury) Jullien C. (Knee Injury) Maamma O. (Injury) Sainte-Luce T. (Injury) Sylla I. (Injury)

There are questionable in Montpellier: Gueguin A. (Knee Injury)

Our prediction for today's Monaco to win the game is with odds 1.31.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Monaco won 11 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 36-24.

Including matches at home between the teams Monaco won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 19-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Monaco
French Ligue 1
22.09.24	Monaco - Le Havre	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
19.09.24	Monaco - Barcelona	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
14.09.24	Auxerre - Monaco	0:3 ✺
01.09.24	Monaco - Lens	1:1 ✺
24.08.24	Lyon - Monaco	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WWWTW
- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 1
22.09.24	Montpellier - Auxerre	3:2 ✺
15.09.24	Rennes - Montpellier	3:0 ✺
31.08.24	Montpellier - Nantes	1:3 ✺
23.08.24	Paris Saint-Germain - Montpellier	6:0 ✺
18.08.24	Montpellier - Strasbourg	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
12.05.24	Montpellier - Monaco	0:2
03.12.23	Monaco - Montpellier	2:0
30.04.23	Monaco - Montpellier	0:4
09.10.22	Montpellier - Monaco	0:2
23.01.22	Montpellier - Monaco	3:2
24.10.21	Monaco - Montpellier	3:1
15.01.21	Montpellier - Monaco	2:3

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