Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 1 - Round 8

Date: 20 October 2024, Sunday

Location: Stade de la Mosson (Montpellier)

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
World	Disney+, Fanatiz


	Montpellier		Olympique Marseille

	1	X	2
	4.5	4.1	1.67	Watch
	4.5	4	1.7
	4.45	4.15	1.7	Watch
	4.71	4.18	1.72
	4.62	4.22	1.72	Watch
	4.5	4	1.73
	4.55	4.4	1.76	Watch
	4.45	4.15	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.54 ↑ (4.26)	4.15 ↑ (4.11)	1.71 ↓ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 1 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
21.1%

Draw
23%

Olympique Marseille
55.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.4%

23.3%

54.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.6%

23.5%

53.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.9%	6.2%	84%

Montpellier - Olympique Marseille Predictions

Users Predictions: Olympique Marseille will win (68 of 80 users predict this - 85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.18% – 92.82%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Lecomte B. (G) 77. Sacko F. 27. Omeragic B. 20. Toure B. 3. Sylla I. 19. Nzingoula R. 13. Chotard J. 7. Nordin A. 11. Savanier T. (C) 70. Coulibaly T. 8. Adams A.	1. Rulli G. (G) 29. Lirola P. 5. Balerdi L. (C) 13. Cornelius D. 6. Garcia U. 23. Hojbjerg P. 25. Rabiot A. 10. Greenwood M. 11. Harit A. 17. Rowe J. 9. Wahi E.
Substitutes
15. Bares G. 16. Bertaud D. (G) 45. Dzodic S. 12. Ferri J. 38. Gueguin A. 10. Khazri W. 21. Mincarelli L. 29. Tchato E.	20. Brassier L. 12. De Lange J. (G) 51. Kone I. 44. Luis Henrique 18. Meite A. 62. Murillo M. 21. Rongier V. 22. Sternal E. 40. Van Neck J. (G)
Coaches
Der Zakarian M.	De Zerbi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
1', 0 - 1, Wahi E. ⚽, Rowe J. (A),
19', Cornelius D. 🟨,
28', Nzingoula R. 🟨,
36', 0 - 2, Harit A. ⚽, Garcia U. (A),
39', Chotard J. ↓, Ferri J. ↑,
40', 0 - 3, Hojbjerg P. ⚽, Greenwood M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
51', Rowe J. 🟨,
55', Omeragic B. ↓, Dzodic S. ↑,
56', Sylla I. ↓, Mincarelli L. ↑,
58', 0 - 4, Greenwood M. ⚽, Wahi E. (A),
60', Lirola P. ↓, Murillo M. ↑,
60', Rowe J. ↓, Luis Henrique ↑,
64', Dzodic S. 🟥,
70', Wahi E. ↓, Kone I. ↑,
73', 0 - 5, Luis Henrique ⚽,
79', Harit A. ↓, Sternal E. ↑,
79', Garcia U. ↓, Rongier V. ↑,
85', Coulibaly T. ↓, Khazri W. ↑,
86', Sacko F. ↓, Tchato E. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 0.

Montpellier is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Marseille is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Marseille could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Marseille is a favorite.

There will not play in Montpellier: Issoufou Y. (Thigh Injury) Jullien C. (Knee Injury) Kouyate K. (Surgery) Sagnan M. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Marseille: Carboni V. (Knee Injury) Maupay N. (Red Card) Moumbagna F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Montpellier: Al-Tamari M. (Injury) Ferri J. (Injury) Gueguin A. (Knee Injury) Maamma O. (Injury) Sainte-Luce T. (Injury)

There are questionable in Marseille: Blanco R. (Injury) Kone I. (Ankle Injury) Merlin Q. (Thigh Injury) Nadir B. (Knee Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 2 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 22:35 (average 1.1:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Montpellier won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14:12 (average 1.6:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 1
06.10.24	Reims - Montpellier	4:2 ✺
28.09.24	Monaco - Montpellier	2:1 ✺
22.09.24	Montpellier - Auxerre	3:2 ✺
15.09.24	Rennes - Montpellier	3:0 ✺
31.08.24	Montpellier - Nantes	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLWLL
- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
04.10.24	Olympique Marseille - Angers	1:1 ✺
29.09.24	Strasbourg - Olympique Marseille	1:0 ✺
22.09.24	Lyon - Olympique Marseille	2:3 ✺
14.09.24	Olympique Marseille - Nice	2:0 ✺
31.08.24	Toulouse - Olympique Marseille	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
25.02.24	Olympique Marseille - Montpellier	4:1
20.12.23	Montpellier - Olympique Marseille	1:1
31.03.23	Olympique Marseille - Montpellier	1:1
02.01.23	Montpellier - Olympique Marseille	1:2
10.04.22	Olympique Marseille - Montpellier	2:0
Coupe De France
29.01.22	Olympique Marseille - Montpellier	2:1 penalties
French Ligue 1
08.08.21	Montpellier - Olympique Marseille	2:3

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