Match Info

Serie B - Round 8

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Benito Stirpe (Frosinone)

Referee: Rapuano A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Switzerland	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV
World	Onefootball


	Frosinone		Monza

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.2	2.65	Watch
	2.58	3.1	2.68
	2.75	3.15	2.88
	27.54	4.50	1.23	Watch
	2.61	3.13	2.71	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.63 ↑ (2.63)	3.42 ↑ (3.13)	2.43 ↓ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Frosinone
15.7%

Draw
35%

Monza
49.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

29.7%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

29.5%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Frosinone has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Frosinone's form might have worsened.

Monza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Monza's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Frosinone than the current prediction. (+20.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Frosinone, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monza than the current prediction. (-14.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Monza, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	68.7%	18.7%

Frosinone - Monza Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Frosinone will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Monza will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 68.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 46.1% – 91.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 5 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Palmisani L. (C) 20. Oyono A. 3. Calvani G. 30. Monterisi I. 79. Bracaglia G. 8. Koutsoupias I. 14. Calo G. 18. Grosso F. 7. Ghedjemis F. 9. Raimondo A. 32. Masciangelo E.	20. Thiam D. (G) 4. Izzo A. (C) 13. Ravanelli L. 44. Carboni A. 19. Birindelli S. 14. Obiang P. 32. Pessina M. 7. Azzi P. 28. Colpani A. 17. Balde K. 47. Mota D.
Substitutes
16. Cichella M. 77. Dixon D. 6. Gelli J. 59. Hegelund V. 17. Kvernadze G. 24. Ndow A. 21. Oyono J. 75. Pisseri M. (G) 27. Raychev A. 1. Sherri A. (G) 90. Vergani E. 28. Zilli M.	24. Bakoune A. 2. Brorsson A. 27. Capolupo S. 10. Caprari G. 26. Ciurria P. 21. Colombo L. 15. Delli Carri F. 3. Lucchesi L. 9. Maric M. 37. Petagna A. 1. Pizzignacco S. (G) 18. Zeroli K.
Coaches
Alvini M.	Bianco P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', Balde K. 🟨,
34', Koutsoupias I. 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Balde K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Monterisi I. ↓, Gelli J. ↑,
57', Raimondo A. ↓, Zilli M. ↑,
57', Masciangelo E. ↓, Kvernadze G. ↑,
58', Colpani A. ↓, Petagna A. ↑,
58', Mota D. ↓, Ciurria P. ↑,
71', Obiang P. ↓, Zeroli K. ↑,
71', Koutsoupias I. ↓, Vergani E. ↑,
71', Balde K. ↓, Caprari G. ↑,
73', Ravanelli L. 🟨,
78', Oyono A. ↓, Cichella M. ↑,
83', Birindelli S. ↓, Brorsson A. ↑,
84', Zeroli K. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Frosinone won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Frosinone: Biraschi D. (Knee Injury) Corrado N. (Broken Leg) Gelli F. (Injury) Gori L. (Knee Injury) Hegelund V. (Knee Injury) Selvini A. (Knee Injury) Sherri A. (Face Injury)

There will not play in Monza: Antov V. (Knee Injury) Ciurria P. (Injury) Forson O. (Knee Injury) Mota D. (Inactive) Pessina M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Frosinone: Barcella K. (Muscle Injury) Marchizza R. (Inactive)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Frosinone won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:16. (average 1.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Frosinone won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 2.7:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Frosinone Calcio
Italian Serie B
04.10.25	Venezia - Frosinone	3:0 ✺
30.09.25	Frosinone - Cesena	3:1 ✺
27.09.25	Mantova - Frosinone	1:5 ✺
Coppa Italia
23.09.25	Cagliari - Frosinone	4:1 ✺
Italian Serie B
19.09.25	Frosinone - Südtirol-Alto Adige	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LWWLT
- Monza 1912
Italian Serie B
04.10.25	Monza - Catanzaro	2:1 ✺
01.10.25	Empoli - Monza	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Monza - Padova	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Monza - Sampdoria	1:0 ✺
12.09.25	Avellino - Monza	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia
17.08.25	Monza - Frosinone	0:1
Italian Serie A
19.05.24	Monza - Frosinone	0:1
06.01.24	Frosinone - Monza	2:3
Coppa Italia
07.08.22	Monza - Frosinone	3:2
Italian Serie B
25.04.22	Frosinone - Monza	4:1
11.12.21	Monza - Frosinone	3:2
02.03.21	Frosinone - Monza	2:2

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