Match Info

ITALY: Serie A - Round 27

Date: 2 March 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Brianteo (Monza) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Rapuano A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2, DStv Now, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport Africa 2, SuperSport Football
Albania	12:30	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	08:30	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	15:30	Fast Sports
Asia	—	STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY
Australia	22:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	12:30	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	15:30	CBC Sport
Belgium	12:30	DAZN 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	12:30	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	08:30	Disney+
Bulgaria	13:30	Max Sport 3
Chile	08:30	Disney+
China	19:30	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	06:30	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	12:30	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	13:30	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	12:30	Sport 2
Denmark	12:30	TV2 Play
Finland	13:30	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
Germany	12:30	DAZN 1 Deutsch, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2
Greece	13:30	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong Kong	19:30	HOY TV, M Plus Live
Hungary	12:30	Match 4, Net4+
India	17:00	GXR World
Indonesia	18:30	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	13:30	Sport 4
Italy	12:30	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN 1, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	20:30	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	12:30	ART Motion Sport 1, ART Sport 2
Maldives	16:30	ICE Sports
Malta	12:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	05:30	Disney+, ESPN 2
Montenegro	12:30	Arena Premium 3
New Zealand	00:30	beIN Connect
Nigeria	12:30	SuperSport Africa 2
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
North Macedonia	12:30	Arena Premium 3
Norway	12:30	VG+
Peru	06:30	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	12:30	Eleven Sports 1, Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	11:30	Sport TV2
Romania	13:30	Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	14:30	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Saudi Arabia	14:30	STC TV
Serbia	12:30	Arena Premium 2, Arena Premium 3
Slovenia	12:30	Arena Sport 1
South Africa	13:30	SuperSport Africa 2, SuperSport Football
South America	—	ESPN South
Spain	12:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	12:30	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	12:30	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	14:30	Exxen, S Sport 2, S Sport+
United Arab Emirates	15:30	Abu Dhabi Sports Premium 1
Uruguay	08:30	Disney+
Usa	06:30	CBS, Paramount+
Venezuela	07:30	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	18:30	K+, ON Football, ON Plus
International	11:30	Disney+, Onefootball


	Monza		Torino

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.33	3.25	1.93
				Watch
	4.7	3.36	1.95
				Watch
	4.2	3.25	1.91
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.41 ↑ (3.3)	3.29 ↑ (3.19)	1.93 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monza
21.6%

Draw
29%

Torino
49.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28.9%

29.9%

41.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2%

30.2%

40.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Monza's form might have worsened.

Torino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Torino's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monza than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Monza, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Torino than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Torino, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.2%	10.4%	85.4%

Monza - Torino Predictions

Users Predictions: 46 users predict this event. Monza will win (votes: 2 - 4.3%). Torino will win (votes: 40 - 87%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 8.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Torino: 77.3% – 96.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Turati S. (G) 33. D'Ambrosio D. 4. Izzo A. (C) 22. Palacios T. 19. Birindelli S. 13. Pereira P. 18. Zeroli K. 42. Bianco A. 77. Kyriakopoulos G. 35. Ganvoula S. 17. Balde K.	32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 4. Walukiewicz S. 13. Maripan G. 23. Coco S. 34. Biraghi C. 22. Casadei C. 28. Ricci S. (C) 20. Lazaro V. 10. Vlasic N. 11. Elmas E. 18. Adams C.
Substitutes
2. Brorsson A. 11. Castrovilli G. 84. Ciurria P. 57. Colombo L. 20. Forson O. 3. Lekovic S. 55. Martins K. 69. Mazza A. (G) 47. Mota D. 32. Pessina M. 37. Petagna A. 21. Pizzignacco S. (G) 8. Urbanski K. 80. Vignato S.	21. Dembele A. 17. Donnarumma A. (G) 66. Gineitis G. 8. Ilic I. 7. Karamoh Y. 77. Linetty K. 5. Masina A. 1. Paleari A. (G) 16. Pedersen M. 9. Sanabria A. 24. Sosa B.
Coaches
Nesta A.	Vanoli P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', Birindelli S. 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Elmas E. ⚽, Lazaro V. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Birindelli S. ↓, Urbanski K. ↑,
57', Ganvoula S. ↓, Mota D. ↑,
66', 0 - 2, Casadei C. ⚽,
68', Lazaro V. ↓, Karamoh Y. ↑,
68', Adams C. ↓, Sanabria A. ↑,
70', Zeroli K. ↓, Vignato S. ↑,
70', D'Ambrosio D. ↓, Ciurria P. ↑,
76', Balde K. ↓, Castrovilli G. ↑,
78', Casadei C. ↓, Gineitis G. ↑,
80', Palacios T. 🟨,
80', Maripan G. 🟨,
89', Coco S. 🟨,
90', Elmas E. ↓, Linetty K. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Monza won 0.

Monza has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Torino is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Torino could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Torino is a favorite.

There will not play in Monza: Gagliardini R. (Thigh Injury) Pessina M. (Thigh Injury) Sensi S. (Injury)

There will not play in Torino: Ilkhan E. (Knee Injury) Savva Z. (Injury) Schuurs P. (Knee Injury) Zapata D. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Monza: Akpa Akpro J. (Injury) Caldirola L. (Injury) Caprari G. (Injury) Carboni A. (Injury) Castrovilli G. (Injury) Forson O. (Injury)

There are questionable in Torino: Ilic I. (Muscle Injury) Njie A. (Injury) Tameze A. (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Monza won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 5:11 (average 0.7:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Monza won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3:8 (average 0.8:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Monza 1912
Italian Serie A
24.02.25	Roma - Monza	4:0 ✺
16.02.25	Monza - Lecce	0:0 ✺
09.02.25	Lazio - Monza	5:1 ✺
01.02.25	Monza - Verona	0:1 ✺
27.01.25	Genoa - Monza	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LTLLL
- Torino FC
Italian Serie A
22.02.25	Torino - Milan	2:1 ✺
14.02.25	Bologna - Torino	3:2 ✺
08.02.25	Torino - Genoa	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Atalanta - Torino	1:1 ✺
24.01.25	Torino - Cagliari	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
24.11.24	Torino - Monza	1:1
30.03.24	Torino - Monza	1:0
11.11.23	Monza - Torino	1:1
07.05.23	Torino - Monza	1:1
Club Friendly
28.12.22	Monza - Torino	1:4
Italian Serie A
13.08.22	Monza - Torino	1:2
Club Friendly
04.01.17	Monza - Torino	0:1

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