Match Info

ITALY: Serie A - Round 25

Date: 16 February 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Brianteo (Monza) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Collu G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	New World Sport 2, New World Sport App
Armenia	18:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY
Austria	15:00	DAZN
Belgium	15:00	DAZN 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	15:00	Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Brazil	11:00	Disney+
Bulgaria	16:00	Max Sport 3
China	22:00	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	15:00	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	15:00	Sport 2
Denmark	15:00	TV2 Play
Finland	16:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
Germany	15:00	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	16:00	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong Kong	22:00	HOY TV, M Plus Live
Hungary	15:00	Net4+
India	19:30	GXR World
Indonesia	21:00	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	16:00	ONE Sport 2
Italy	15:00	215 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	23:00	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	15:00	ART Motion Sport 1, ART Sport 4
Maldives	19:00	ICE Sports
Malta	15:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
New Zealand	03:00	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
North Macedonia	15:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	15:00	VG+
Poland	15:00	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	14:00	Sport TV3
Romania	16:00	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport PPV 3
Saudi Arabia	17:00	STC TV
Serbia	15:00	Arena Sport 5
Slovenia	15:00	Arena Sport 4
Spain	15:00	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:00	TV4 Play
Switzerland	15:00	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	17:00	S Sport+
Ukraine	16:00	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport
United Arab Emirates	18:00	Abu Dhabi Sports 2 Premium
Usa	09:00	CBS, Paramount+
Vietnam	21:00	ON Plus
International	14:00	Disney+, Onefootball


	Monza		Lecce

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.1	2.7	Watch
	2.82	2.98	2.78	Watch
	2.9	3.05	2.83
	2.77	3.1	2.73	Watch
	2.75	2.9	2.7
	2.82	3.18	2.77	Watch
	2.85	3	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.81 ↑ (2.21)	3.04 ↓ (3.3)	2.76 ↓ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monza
34%

Draw
31.4%

Lecce
34.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.2%

28.9%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

28.4%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Monza's form might have worsened.

Lecce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lecce's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monza than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Monza, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lecce, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.3%	41.3%	30.4%

Monza - Lecce Predictions

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Monza will win (votes: 12 - 26.7%). Lecce will win (votes: 14 - 31.1%). It will Tie (votes: 19 - 42.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 27.8% – 56.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Turati S. (G) 33. D'Ambrosio D. 4. Izzo A. 44. Carboni A. 13. Pereira P. 8. Urbanski K. 42. Bianco A. 77. Kyriakopoulos G. 47. Mota D. 84. Ciurria P. (C) 35. Ganvoula S.	30. Falcone W. (G) 12. Guilbert F. 19. Jean G. 6. Baschirotto F. (C) 25. Gallo A. 14. Helgason T. J. 75. Pierret B. 29. Coulibaly L. 50. Pierotti S. 9. Krstovic N. 7. Tete Morente
Substitutes
17. Balde K. 2. Brorsson A. 10. Caprari G. 11. Castrovilli G. 57. Colombo L. 20. Forson O. 55. Martins K. 69. Mazza A. (G) 22. Palacios T. 37. Petagna A. 21. Pizzignacco S. (G) 80. Vignato S. 18. Zeroli K.	5. Berisha M. 23. Burnete R. 1. Fruchtl C. (G) 4. Gaspar K. 77. Kaba M. 37. Karlsson J. 10. Ndri K. 8. Rafia H. 20. Ramadani Y. 3. Rebic A. 99. Sala M. 32. Samooja J. (G) 44. Tiago Gabriel 17. Veiga D.
Coaches
Nesta A.	Giampaolo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Izzo A. 🟨,
35', Pereira P. 🟨,
37', Pierotti S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Mota D. ↓, Zeroli K. ↑,
65', Ciurria P. ↓, Caprari G. ↑,
69', Pierret B. ↓, Ramadani Y. ↑,
74', Ramadani Y. 🟨,
76', Guilbert F. ↓, Veiga D. ↑,
79', D'Ambrosio D. ↓, Brorsson A. ↑,
79', Ganvoula S. ↓, Balde K. ↑,
89', Helgason T. J. ↓, Rebic A. ↑,
89', Pierotti S. ↓, Ndri K. ↑,
90', Urbanski K. ↓, Martins K. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Monza won 0.

Monza is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Lecce is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Monza: Gagliardini R. (Thigh Injury) Pessina M. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Lecce: Gonzalez J. (Chest Injury) Marchwinski F. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Monza: Akpa Akpro J. (Injury) Birindelli S. (Thigh Injury) D'Ambrosio D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Lecce: Banda L. (Broken ankle) Gaspar K. (Knee Injury) Helgason T. J. (Abdominal strain)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Monza won 1 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 5:10 (average 0.6:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Monza won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:3 (average 0.5:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Monza 1912
Italian Serie A
09.02.25	Lazio - Monza	5:1 ✺
01.02.25	Monza - Verona	0:1 ✺
27.01.25	Genoa - Monza	2:0 ✺
18.01.25	Bologna - Monza	3:1 ✺
13.01.25	Monza - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLLLW
- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
09.02.25	Lecce - Bologna	0:0 ✺
31.01.25	Parma - Lecce	1:3 ✺
26.01.25	Lecce - Inter Milan	0:4 ✺
19.01.25	Cagliari - Lecce	4:1 ✺
11.01.25	Empoli - Lecce	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
15.12.24	Lecce - Monza	2:1
27.04.24	Lecce - Monza	1:1
17.09.23	Monza - Lecce	1:1
28.05.23	Monza - Lecce	0:1
11.09.22	Lecce - Monza	1:1
Italian Serie B
27.02.22	Monza - Lecce	0:1
01.10.21	Lecce - Monza	3:0

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