Match Info

ITALY: Serie A - Round 23

Date: 1 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Brianteo (Monza)

Referee: Massa D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Monza		Verona

	1	X	2
	2.4	3	3.25	Watch
	2.4	3	3.2
	2.48	2.98	3.2	Watch
	2.5	3.05	3.36
	2.46	3.03	3.35	Watch
	2.4	3	3.1
	2.46	3.08	3.34	Watch
	2.5	3	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.14)	3.02 ↓ (3.34)	3.26 ↓ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monza
39%

Draw
31.7%

Verona
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

28.5%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

28.4%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Monza's form might have worsened.

Verona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monza than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Monza, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Verona than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.6%	39.5%	28.9%

Monza - Verona Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Monza will win (votes: 11 - 31.4%). Verona will win (votes: 11 - 31.4%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 37.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.1% – 53.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Turati S. (G) 4. Izzo A. 3. Lekovic S. 22. Palacios T. 13. Pereira P. 8. Urbanski K. 12. Sensi S. 77. Kyriakopoulos G. 84. Ciurria P. (C) 80. Vignato S. 47. Mota D.	1. Montipo L. (C) 4. Daniliuc F. 42. Coppola D. 87. Ghilardi D. 38. Tchatchoua J. 25. Serdar S. 6. Belahyane R. 12. Bradaric D. 31. Suslov T. 35. Mosquera D. 9. Sarr A.
Substitutes
2. Brorsson A. 44. Carboni A. 11. Castrovilli G. 57. Colombo L. 20. Forson O. 24. Maric M. 55. Martins K. 69. Mazza A. (G) 37. Petagna A. 21. Pizzignacco S. (G)	72. Ajayi J. 22. Berardi A. (G) 80. Cisse A. 82. Corradi C. 21. Dani Silva 27. Dawidowicz P. 20. Kastanos G. 7. Lambourde M. 8. Lazovic D. 10. Niasse C. 15. Okou Y. 2. Oyegoke D. 34. Perilli S. (G) 14. Rocha Livramento D.
Coaches
Bocchetti S.	Zanetti P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Lekovic S. (Own goal),
29', Mosquera D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Serdar S. ↓, Niasse C. ↑,
53', Niasse C. 🟨,
56', Izzo A. 🟨,
58', Sensi S. ↓, Castrovilli G. ↑,
58', Kyriakopoulos G. ↓, Martins K. ↑,
67', Turati S. ↓, Pizzignacco S. ↑,
73', Sarr A. ↓, Rocha Livramento D. ↑,
80', Bradaric D. 🟨,
82', Vignato S. ↓, Petagna A. ↑,
82', Palacios T. ↓, Maric M. ↑,
82', Bradaric D. ↓, Lazovic D. ↑,
83', Mosquera D. ↓, Dawidowicz P. ↑,
87', Martins K. 🟨,
89', Rocha Livramento D. ↓, Ajayi J. ↑,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 17).

Monza is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Verona is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Monza will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Monza: Bianco A. (Yellow Cards) Birindelli S. (Thigh Injury) Cragno A. (Shoulder Injury) Gagliardini R. (Thigh Injury) Pessina M. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Verona: Duda O. (Red Card) Frese M. (Knee Injury) Harroui A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Monza: Akpa Akpro J. (Injury) Bondo W. (Thigh Injury) Caldirola L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Verona: Tengstedt C. (Ankle Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Monza won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9:2 (average 1.8:0.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Monza won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:0 (average 1:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Monza 1912
Italian Serie A
27.01.25	Genoa - Monza	2:0 ✺
18.01.25	Bologna - Monza	3:1 ✺
13.01.25	Monza - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
05.01.25	Monza - Cagliari	1:2 ✺
28.12.24	Parma - Monza	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLWLL
- Hellas Verona
Italian Serie A
27.01.25	Venezia - Verona	1:1 ✺
19.01.25	Verona - Lazio	0:3 ✺
12.01.25	Napoli - Verona	2:0 ✺
04.01.25	Verona - Udinese	0:0 ✺
30.12.24	Bologna - Verona	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 TLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
21.10.24	Verona - Monza	0:3
11.02.24	Monza - Verona	0:0
05.11.23	Verona - Monza	1:3
12.03.23	Verona - Monza	1:1
06.11.22	Monza - Verona	2:0

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