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Monza - Cagliari

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Match Info

  • Serie A - Round 7
  • Date: 19 October 2026, Monday ๐Ÿ Finished
  • Location: U-Power Stadium (Brianteo) (Monza) ๐ŸŒค๏ธ ...
  • Referee: Calzavara A. (Ita)
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    Monza Cagliari
    Monza Cagliari
    1 X 2
    #Advertisement. GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ 2.55 3.1 2.88
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.55 ↑
    (2.25)    		 3.2 ↓
    (3.23)    		 2.93 ↓
    (3.36)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

    • The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Monza
    37.5%    		Draw
    29.9%    		Cagliari
    32.7%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    42.3% 29.4% 28.3%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    43.1% 30% 26.9%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Monza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)
  • Cagliari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monza than the current prediction. (+5.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Monza, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cagliari than the current prediction. (-5.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cagliari, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    28.9% 15.8% 55.3%

    Monza - Cagliari Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. Monza will win (votes: 10 - 27%). Cagliari will win (votes: 21 - 56.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 16.2%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Cagliari: 40.8% โ€“ 72.8%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • BTTS - yes (1.79) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH 0 - Cagliari (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Cagliari (1.55) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
  • New Consensus by Tipsters:
    • AH +0.25 - Cagliari (1.78) (votes: 93%) โญ Best Value.
    • BTTS - yes (1.83) (votes: 92%) โญ Best Value.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cagliari will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) ๐Ÿฅ‰ Bronze Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Cagliari (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. SwedenTornqvist N. (G)
    60. ItalyKouadio E.
      2. GeorgiaGoglichidze S.
    44. ItalyCarboni A.
    19. ItalyBirindelli S. (C)
      8. FranceOndoa F.
    14. NigeriaAkinsanmiro E.
      7. PortugalMangas R.
    47. PortugalMota D.
    46. EnglandRobinson J.
      9. PortugalVarela G.
    		  1. ItalyCaprile E. (G)
      2. PortugalPedro J.
    26. ColombiaMina Y. (C)
    15. UruguayRodriguez J.
    33. SlovakiaObert A.
      8. FranceAdopo M.
      6. EnglandWinks H.
      4. ItalyRomano A.
    70. ItalyMaldini D.
    31. SenegalMendy P.
    18. AngolaNzola M.
    Substitutes
      6. BulgariaAntov V.
    24. ItalyBakoune A.
    26. ItalyCiurria P.
    21. ItalyColombo L.
    28. ItalyColpani A.
    10. ItalyCutrone P.
    90. ItalyFolorunsho M.
    11. EnglandForson O.
    80. ItalyMout M.
    16. BelgiumNgonge C.
    43. SloveniaStrajnar A. (G)
    20. SenegalThiam D. (G)
    		24. ItalyAurelio G.
    20. ItalyCiervo R.
    14. ItalyDeiola A.
    39. GambiaFadera A.
    10. ItalyFazzini J.
    21. ItalyGagliardini R.
      9. SpainKevin
    22. ItalyKofler R.
    27. ZambiaLiteta J.
    79. FranceMassolin Y.
    23. SerbiaRadunovic B. (G)
    12. AlbaniaSherri A. (G)
    28. JapanSugawara Y.
    32. BulgariaSulev I.
    Coaches
         CroatiaJuric I.
    		     ItalyPisacane F.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (1 - 0)
    • 39', 1 - 0, Kouadio E. ⚽, Mota D. (A),
    • 2nd Half (3 - 0)
    • 47', 2 - 0, Varela G. ⚽, Ondoa F. (A),
    • 53', Nzola M. ↓, Fadera A. ↑,
    • 64', Mota D. ↓, Colpani A. ↑,
    • 66', 3 - 0, Robinson J. ⚽, Varela G. (A),
    • 67', Pedro J. ↓, Sugawara Y. ↑,
    • 67', Maldini D. ↓, Kevin ↑,
    • 76', Winks H. 🟨,
    • 79', 4 - 0, Varela G. ⚽,
    • 81', Kouadio E. ↓, Bakoune A. ↑,
    • 81', Akinsanmiro E. ↓, Folorunsho M. ↑,
    • 81', Varela G. ↓, Cutrone P. ↑,
    • 81', Romano A. ↓, Deiola A. ↑,
    • 81', Winks H. ↓, Liteta J. ↑,
    • 82', Birindelli S. 🟨,
    • 82', Fadera A. 🟨,
    • 87', Robinson J. ↓, Forson O. ↑,

    Preview

  • A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 15th and 6th in the Promotion - Conference League (Qualification: )).
  • Recent results have been tough for Monza (last 5 matches: 1 win).
  • Cagliari is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
  • The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
  • Confirmed absences for Monza: Forson O. (Injury) Lucchesi L. (Red Card) Pessina M. (Knee Injury) Toure I. (Contusion) Ziolkowski J. (Foot Injury).
  • Confirmed absences for Cagliari: Felici M. (Knee Injury) Idrissi R. (Knee Injury) Trepy Y. (Injury).
  • In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Monza has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:6 (averaging 0.8:1.5 goals per game).
  • Specifically in home fixtures for Monza against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 2:2 goals (averaging 1:1 per game).

    • Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    10Cagliari94148:13-513
    16Monza921616:22-67

    Outrights of Italian Serie A for now
    Cagliari: 0.2% Monza: 0.11%
    Last Results with these Odds

    Monza - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 42.26%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

    Cagliari - the odds 3.36 are the expected chance of winning is 28.3%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Monza 1912
    Italian Serie A
    11.10.26 Lazio - Monza 3:1 ✺
    Club Friendly
    03.10.26 Brest - Monza 2:2 ✺
    26.09.26 Monza - Cremonese 2:3 ✺
    Italian Serie A
    18.09.26 Monza - Sassuolo 2:1 ✺
    13.09.26 Lecce - Monza 3:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4
    LTLWL
    - Cagliari Calcio
    Italian Serie A
    11.10.26 Cagliari - Juventus 1:1 ✺
    19.09.26 Udinese - Cagliari 0:1 ✺
    12.09.26 Atalanta - Cagliari 1:2 ✺
    07.09.26 Cagliari - Lecce 1:0 ✺
    Coppa Italia
    03.09.26 Cagliari - Verona 1:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29
    TWWWL
    Latest Head to Head
    Italian Serie A
    30.03.25 Cagliari - Monza 3:0
    05.01.25 Monza - Cagliari 1:2
    16.03.24 Monza - Cagliari 1:0
    26.11.23 Cagliari - Monza 1:1
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Monza 1912
    Italian Serie A
    31.10.26 Bologna - Monza ✺
    - Cagliari Calcio
    Italian Serie A
    01.11.26 Lazio - Cagliari ✺

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