Match Info

ITALY: Serie A - Round 20

Date: 13 January 2025, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Brianteo (Monza) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Dionisi F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football
Albania	20:45	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	16:45	ESPN 2
Asia	—	STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY
Australia	06:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	20:45	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	20:45	DAZN 1
Brazil	16:45	Disney+
Bulgaria	21:45	Max Sport 3
China	03:45	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	14:45	ESPN 2
Croatia	20:45	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	21:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	20:45	Sport 1
Denmark	20:45	TV2 Play
Finland	21:45	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
Georgia	23:45	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	20:45	DAZN 1 Deutsch, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2
Greece	21:45	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong Kong	03:45	HOY TV, M Plus Live
Hungary	20:45	Match 4, Net4+
India	01:15	GXR World
Indonesia	02:45	Vidio
Israel	21:45	Sport 2
Italy	20:45	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	04:45	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	20:45	ART Motion Sport 1, ART Sport 1
Malta	20:45	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	13:45	ESPN 2
Moldova	21:45	ICE TV
Netherlands	20:45	Ziggo Sport 2
New Zealand	08:45	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Norway	20:45	VG+
Poland	20:45	Eleven Sports 1, Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	19:45	Sport TV1
Romania	21:45	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 2
Russia	22:45	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV
Saudi Arabia	22:45	STC TV
Serbia	20:45	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	20:45	Arena Sport 1
South America	—	ESPN 2 South
Spain	20:45	DAZN Espana
Sweden	20:45	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	20:45	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	22:45	Exxen, S Sport 2, S Sport+
United Arab Emirates	23:45	Abu Dhabi Sports Premium 1
Usa	14:45	Paramount+
Venezuela	15:45	Inter
Vietnam	02:45	K+, ON Football, ON Plus
International	19:45	Disney+, Onefootball


	Monza		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.5	1.82	Watch
	4.2	3.4	1.9
	4.45	3.5	1.85	Watch
	4.52	3.48	1.9	Watch
	4.2	3.4	1.85
	4.55	3.66	1.91	Watch
	4.5	3.55	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.39 ↑ (4.08)	3.5 ↓ (3.58)	1.87 ↓ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monza
21.7%

Draw
27.3%

Fiorentina
51%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

23.4%

26.6%

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.6%

24.3%

45.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monza than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fiorentina, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.3%	15.7%	75%

Monza - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 106 users predict this event. Monza will win (votes: 10 - 9.4%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 80 - 75.5%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 15.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 67.3% – 83.7%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Turati S. (G) 4. Izzo A. 22. Mari P. (C) 44. Carboni A. 13. Pereira P. 38. Bondo W. 42. Bianco A. 7. Akpa Akpro J. 84. Ciurria P. 14. Maldini D. 10. Caprari G.	43. de Gea D. (G) 2. Dodo 15. Comuzzo P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 21. Gosens R. 24. Richardson A. 29. Adli Y. 23. Colpani A. 10. Gudmundsson A. 7. Sottil R. 20. Kean M.
Substitutes
19. Birindelli S. 57. Colombo L. 11. Djuric M. 24. Maric M. 55. Martins K. 69. Mazza A. (G) 37. Petagna A. 21. Pizzignacco S. (G) 52. Postiglione N. 12. Sensi S. 27. Valoti M. 80. Vignato S.	9. Beltran L. 90. Folorunsho M. 11. Ikone J. 33. Kayode M. 99. Kouame C. 8. Mandragora R. 30. Martinelli T. (G) 22. Moreno M. 65. Parisi F. 5. Pongracic M. 1. Terracciano P. (G) 14. Valentini N.
Coaches
Bocchetti S.	Palladino R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
44', 1 - 0, Ciurria P. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Beltran L. ↑,
46', Mari P. ↓, Martins K. ↑,
58', Caprari G. ↓, Djuric M. ↑,
61', Turati S. 🟨,
63', 2 - 0, Maldini D. ⚽, Pereira P. (A),
64', Richardson A. ↓, Folorunsho M. ↑,
68', Colpani A. ↓, Ikone J. ↑,
68', Gosens R. ↓, Parisi F. ↑,
74', 2 - 1, Beltran L. (Pen),
75', Sottil R. ↓, Kouame C. ↑,
77', Pereira P. 🟨,
87', Ciurria P. 🟨,
87', Ranieri L. 🟨,
87', Bondo W. 🟨,
90+1', Maldini D. ↓, Petagna A. ↑,
90+3', Bianco A. ↓, Valoti M. ↑,
90+3', Akpa Akpro J. ↓, Vignato S. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Monza won 1.

Monza has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Fiorentina is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Fiorentina is a favorite.

There will not play in Monza: Cragno A. (Shoulder Injury) D'Ambrosio D. (Red Card) Gagliardini R. (Thigh Injury) Pessina M. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Biraghi C. (Coach's decision) Bove E. (Heart Problems) Gudmundsson A. (Ankle Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Monza won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8:11 (average 1.3:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Monza won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:3 (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Monza 1912
Italian Serie A
05.01.25	Monza - Cagliari	1:2 ✺
28.12.24	Parma - Monza	2:1 ✺
22.12.24	Monza - Juventus	1:2 ✺
15.12.24	Lecce - Monza	2:1 ✺
09.12.24	Monza - Udinese	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
04.01.25	Fiorentina - Napoli	0:3 ✺
29.12.24	Juventus - Fiorentina	2:2 ✺
23.12.24	Fiorentina - Udinese	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.12.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Fiorentina	1:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
15.12.24	Bologna - Fiorentina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
01.09.24	Fiorentina - Monza	2:2
13.05.24	Fiorentina - Monza	2:1
22.12.23	Monza - Fiorentina	0:1
23.04.23	Monza - Fiorentina	3:2
04.01.23	Fiorentina - Monza	1:1
Coppa Italia
18.08.19	Fiorentina - Monza	3:1

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