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Current Win Probability
Crewe Alexandra 50.6%
Draw 27.2%
Carlisle United 22.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
46.2%
27.4%
26.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
42.2%
25%
28.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Crewe Alexandra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)
Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (-8.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Crewe Alexandra that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+6.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carlisle United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
66.7%
23.8%
9.5%
Crewe Alexandra - Carlisle United Predictions
Users Predictions:
21 users predict this event. Crewe will win (votes: 14 - 66.7%). Carlisle will win (votes: 2 - 9.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 23.8%). Confidence interval (95%) for Crewe: 46.5% – 86.9%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Marschall F. (G) 3. Knight-Lebel J. 5. Demetriou M. (C) 4. Williams Z. 2. Cooney R. 17. Holicek M. 6. Sanders M. H. 10. Tracey S. 25. Conway M. 7. Long Ch. 11. Tabiner J.
13. Breeze G. (G) 5. Lavelle S. (C) 26. Barclay B. 22. Mellish J. 18. Ellis J. 12. Biggins H. 3. Harper C. 24. Sadi D. 17. Neal H. 14. Adu Adjei D. 29. Armstrong L.
Substitutes
9. Bogle O. 1. Booth T. (G) 18. Connolly J. 24. Finney C. 14. Lankester J. 19. Lunt O. 23. Powell J.
37. Burey T. 15. Charters T. 25. Dudik A. 40. Harris K. 6. Hayden A. 11. Jones J. 23. Smith J. (G)
Coaches
Bell L.
Williamson M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
8', Lavelle S. 🟨,
21', 0 - 1, Ellis J. ⚽, Biggins H. (A),
32', 1 - 1, Long Ch. ⚽, Holicek M. (A),
35', Williams Z. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Williams Z. ↓, Connolly J. ↑,
54', Neal H. 🟨,
58', Harper C. ↓, Harris K. ↑,
58', Ellis J. ↓, Jones J. ↑,
67', Tracey S. ↓, Lankester J. ↑,
71', Cooney R. ↓, Finney C. ↑,
72', Long Ch. ↓, Bogle O. ↑,
79', 1 - 2, Harris K. ⚽, Armstrong L. (A),
82', Sadi D. ↓, Burey T. ↑,
82', Adu Adjei D. ↓, Charters T. ↑,
83', Tabiner J. ↓, Powell J. ↑,
84', Breeze G. 🟨,
87', Knight-Lebel J. 🟨,
90+2', Conway M. 🟨,
90+4', 2 - 2, Bogle O. ⚽,
90+6', 🟨,
90+9', 3 - 2, Lankester J. ⚽, Conway M. (A),
Preview
One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Crewe won 2.
Both teams are now playing unstable.
Recently Crewe have a series of guest games.
Recently Carlisle have a series of home games.
In this match Crewe is a favorite.
Last 16 head-to-head matches Crewe won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 18:20 (average 1.1:1.3).
Including matches at home between the teams Crewe won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10:13 (average 1.3:1.6).
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Marschall F. (G) 
Knight-Lebel J. 
Williams Z. 
Holicek M. 
Lavelle S. (C) 
Dudik A. 
Jones J. 
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