Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 8

Date: 1 November 2022, Tuesday

Location: The Mazuma Stadium (Morecambe)

Referee: Edwards M. (Eng)


	Morecambe		Derby County

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.6	1.7
	4.75	3.6	1.72
	5.2	3.65	1.73
	4.6	3.6	1.71
	5.2	3.76	1.73
	4.8	3.6	1.7
	5.15	3.95	1.7	Watch
	4.7	3.7	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.96 ↓ (5.36)	3.68 ↓ (3.8)	1.71 ↑ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morecambe
19.1%

Draw
25.7%

Derby County
55.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.6%

24.9%

57.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.9%

23.9%

59.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morecambe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.8%	14.7%	73.5%

Morecambe - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Morecambe will win (votes: 4 - 11.8%). Derby will win (votes: 25 - 73.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 14.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 58.7% – 88.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 7).

Morecambe has the most likely position - 24 (25.77%), has project points - 39, has currently - 12, has a good chance of relegated (71%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Derby has the most likely position - 4 (12.36%), has project points - 79, has currently - 24, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (47%), has a chance of promoted (28%), has a very small chance of win league (5%).

This event has small quality 17, importance 35, small match rating 26. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Recently Morecambe have a series of guest games.

In this match Derby is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Including matches at home between the teams Morecambe won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morecambe
English League One
29.10.22	Wycombe Wanderers - Morecambe	1:1 ✺
25.10.22	Cheltenham Town - Morecambe	1:0 ✺
22.10.22	Morecambe - Barnsley	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
18.10.22	Harrogate Town - Morecambe	2:1 ✺
English League One
15.10.22	Burton Albion - Morecambe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 TLWLT
- Derby County
English League One
29.10.22	Derby County - Bristol Rovers	4:2 ✺
25.10.22	Derby County - Exeter City	0:0 ✺
21.10.22	Ipswich Town - Derby County	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
18.10.22	Derby County - Manchester City U21	1:3 ✺
English League One
15.10.22	Accrington Stanley - Derby County	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WTLLW

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