Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 33

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio João Cardoso (Tondela)

Referee: Baixinho R. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Portugal	Sport TV4


	Tondela		Moreirense

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.5	4.2	Watch
	1.85	3.45	4.15	Watch
	1.92	3.57	4.37
	1.88	3.51	4.22	Watch
	1.85	3.4	4	Watch
	1.9	3.66	4.31	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.3)	3.52 ↑ (3.25)	4.21 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tondela
50.6%

Draw
26.9%

Moreirense
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

29.1%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

29.8%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tondela's performance.

Moreirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Moreirense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tondela that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Moreirense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.4%	21.1%	10.5%

Tondela - Moreirense Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 13 - 68.4%). Moreirense will win (votes: 2 - 10.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 21.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tondela: 47.5% – 89.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tondela (votes: 1 - 50%). Moreirense (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bernardo (G) 48. Manso T. 44. Silva J. 4. Marques C. 27. Conceicao R. 97. Cicero (C) 32. Rodriguez J. 7. Pedro Maranhao 79. Felix H. 90. Aiko M. 16. Rony Lopes	22. Caio (C) 70. Fabiano 4. Kevyn Monteiro 26. Maracas 27. Kiko 8. Stjepanovic M. 25. Assis A. 2. Travassos 23. John N. 10. Kiko Bondoso 11. Alanzinho
Substitutes
5. Afonso J. 2. Bebeto 10. Hodge J. 23. Kimpioka B. 29. Siebatcheu J. 15. Sithole S. 1. Souza G. (G) 8. Tavares H. 26. van der Heide A.	66. Batista G. 30. Gower J. 78. Landerson 17. Martinez A. 16. Mika (G) 71. Santos L. 9. Semedo L. 7. Teguia C. 99. Yan Maranhao
Coaches
Feio G.	Costa V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Aiko M. ⚽, Pedro Maranhao (A),
29', Alanzinho 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kiko Bondoso ↓, Teguia C. ↑,
46', Stjepanovic M. ↓, Semedo L. ↑,
60', 2 - 0, Rony Lopes ⚽, Manso T. (A),
72', Rony Lopes ↓, Hodge J. ↑,
72', Aiko M. ↓, Tavares H. ↑,
73', Cicero ↓, Kimpioka B. ↑,
74', Kiko ↓, Landerson ↑,
74', Alanzinho ↓, Yan Maranhao ↑,
77', Fabiano 🟨,
83', Fabiano ↓, Santos L. ↑,
83', Felix H. ↓, Siebatcheu J. ↑,
90+1', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Afonso J. ↑,
90+3', Teguia C. 🟨,
90+4', Siebatcheu J. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Moreirense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tondela might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:22. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Tondela won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	8:15	-7	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tondela
Liga Portugal
03.05.26	Casa Pia - Tondela	0:1 ✺
29.04.26	Sporting Lisbon - Tondela	2:2 ✺
25.04.26	Tondela - Nacional	0:2 ✺
19.04.26	Porto - Tondela	2:0 ✺
13.04.26	Tondela - Gil Vicente	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.5 WTLLT
- Moreirense FC
Liga Portugal
02.05.26	Moreirense - Estrela da Amadora	3:2 ✺
25.04.26	Benfica - Moreirense	4:1 ✺
20.04.26	Moreirense - Estoril Praia	1:0 ✺
10.04.26	Famalicão - Moreirense	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Moreirense - Braga	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
11.01.26	Moreirense - Tondela	1:0
Portuguese Liga 2
29.04.23	Moreirense - Tondela	2:1
14.11.22	Tondela - Moreirense	1:1
Liga Portugal
16.04.22	Moreirense - Tondela	2:0
03.01.22	Tondela - Moreirense	2:1
17.04.21	Moreirense - Tondela	2:3
19.12.20	Tondela - Moreirense	0:0

Tondela - Moreirense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide