Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 30

Date: 20 April 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas (Moreira de Conegos) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Torres M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	ZAP
Portugal	20:15	TVI, V+ TVI


	Moreirense		Estoril Praia

	1	X	2
	3	3.6	2.15
	2.98	3.45	2.22
	3.14	3.57	2.33
	3.11	3.54	2.23	Watch
	2.9	3.3	2.25
	3.18	3.53	2.31	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↑ (2.98)	3.5 ↑ (3.35)	2.25 ↓ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moreirense
31%

Draw
27%

Estoril Praia
42%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.7%

28.2%

40.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.7%

28.2%

40.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moreirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Estoril Praia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.6%	31.8%	54.5%

Moreirense - Estoril Praia Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Moreirense will win (votes: 2 - 10%). Estoril will win (votes: 11 - 55%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 35%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estoril: 33.2% – 76.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Moreirense (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Moreirense (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Moreirense (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Moreirense (2.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +1 - Moreirense (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Moreirense (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ferreira A. (G) 70. Fabiano 4. Kevyn Monteiro 66. Batista G. 2. Travassos 25. Assis A. 8. Stjepanovic M. 78. Landerson 21. Rodri 10. Kiko Bondoso 11. Alanzinho (C)	16. Turk M. (G) 4. Ferro 5. Tsoungui A. 25. Bacher F. 22. Carvalho P. 8. Xeka 6. Jandro 24. Amaral P. (C) 70. Peixinho 21. Pizzi 14. Begraoui Y.
Substitutes
22. Caio (G) 30. Gower J. 16. Mika (G) 71. Santos L. 9. Semedo L. 7. Teguia C. 99. Yan Maranhao	12. Carvalho J. 20. Costa G. 31. Dias D. (G) 97. Gomes L. 99. Guitane R. 10. Holsgrove J. 7. Lominadze N. 9. Marques A.
Coaches
Costa V.	Cathro I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Alanzinho ⚽, Assis A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Peixinho ↓, Carvalho J. ↑,
53', Jandro ↓, Guitane R. ↑,
53', Pizzi ↓, Holsgrove J. ↑,
63', Assis A. ↓, Yan Maranhao ↑,
63', Kiko Bondoso ↓, Teguia C. ↑,
72', Ferro 🟨,
73', Xeka ↓, Marques A. ↑,
79', Landerson ↓, Santos L. ↑,
79', Carvalho P. ↓, Costa G. ↑,
90', Alanzinho ↓, Gower J. ↑,
90+3', Tsoungui A. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 2.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Estoril may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Moreirense: Maracas (Yellow Cards) Martinez A. (Muscle Injury) Michel (Muscle Injury) Pinto D. (Shoulder Injury) Santos L. (Injury) Sousa V. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Estoril: Boma K. (Muscle Injury) Sanchez R. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Estoril: Costa G. (Inactive)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:27. (average 1.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Moreirense won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 1.1:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Moreirense	9	3	2	4	11:16	-5	11
18	Estoril	9	0	2	7	5:15	-10	2

Outrights of Liga Portugal for now

Estoril: 0.29% Moreirense: 0.29%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moreirense FC
Liga Portugal
10.04.26	Famalicão - Moreirense	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Moreirense - Braga	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Moreirense - Arouca	0:1 ✺
15.03.26	Porto - Moreirense	3:0 ✺
07.03.26	Moreirense - Nacional	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TLLLT
- Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal
12.04.26	Estoril Praia - Porto	1:3 ✺
06.04.26	Arouca - Estoril Praia	3:2 ✺
22.03.26	Estoril Praia - Rio Ave	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	Nacional - Estoril Praia	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Estoril Praia - Casa Pia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
07.12.25	Estoril Praia - Moreirense	3:3
11.05.25	Moreirense - Estoril Praia	2:2
28.12.24	Estoril Praia - Moreirense	2:2
18.05.24	Moreirense - Estoril Praia	2:1
13.01.24	Estoril Praia - Moreirense	1:3
07.05.22	Estoril Praia - Moreirense	1:0
28.12.21	Moreirense - Estoril Praia	1:0

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