The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Moreirense 37.9%
Draw 29.6%
Nacional 32.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
40.6%
29%
30.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
37.9%
27%
32.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Moreirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)
Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)
The ML Model estimate for Moreirense aligns with the current prediction.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
50%
37.5%
12.5%
Moreirense - Nacional Predictions
Users Predictions:
16 users predict this event. Moreirense will win (votes: 8 - 50%). Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 37.5%). Confidence interval (95%) for Moreirense: 25.5% – 74.5%.
13. Ferreira A. (G) 71. Santos L. 66. Batista G. 26. Maracas (C) 27. Kiko 21. Rodri 8. Stjepanovic M. 2. Travassos 11. Alanzinho 10. Kiko Bondoso 9. Semedo L.
1. Kaique Pereira (G) 16. Nunez A. 34. Leo Santos 38. Ze Vitor 24. Vallier L. 6. Matheus Dias 28. Liziero 27. Gabriel Veron 8. Baeza M. 11. Paulinho Boia 9. Ramirez J. (C)
Substitutes
25. Assis A. 30. Gower J. 23. John N. 4. Kevyn Monteiro 78. Landerson 16. Mika (G)
10. Daniel Junior 88. Deivison 33. Goncalves C. 19. Joao L. 20. Jota Garces 50. Medeiros de Freitas K. V. (G) 99. Pablo Ruan 26. Silva J. 18. Sousa A.
Coaches
Costa V.
Margarido T.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
45+7', 1 - 0, Semedo L. ⚽, Travassos (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Travassos 🟨,
55', Leo Santos 🟨,
64', Rodri ↓, John N. ↑,
67', 1 - 1, Baeza M. ⚽, Nunez A. (A),
69', Gabriel Veron ↓, Pablo Ruan ↑,
70', Santos L. 🟨,
76', Alanzinho ↓, Landerson ↑,
76', Kiko Bondoso ↓, Gower J. ↑,
84', Ramirez J. ↓, Joao L. ↑,
84', Santos L. ↓, Kevyn Monteiro ↑,
90', Baeza M. ↓, Daniel Junior ↑,
90+3', Liziero 🟨,
90+3', John N. 🟨,
90+5', Batista G. 🟨,
Preview
This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 and 14).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 2.
Recent form of Moreirense has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Nacional has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
There will not play in Moreirense: Caio
(Inactive)
Michel
(Inactive)
Sousa V.
(Leg Injury)
There will not play in Nacional: Aurelio J.
(Inactive)
Fernandes I.
(Injury)
Lucas Franca
(Inactive)
Soares F.
(Injury)
Ulisses
(Injury)
There are questionable in Moreirense: Yan Maranhao
(Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 13 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 34:17. (average 1.7:0.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Moreirense won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:10. (average 2:1.1).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
12
Moreirense
8
2
2
4
8:15
-7
8
15
Nacional
7
1
1
5
7:15
-8
4
Last Results with these Odds
Moreirense - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 40.61%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.
Nacional - the odds 3.1 are the expected chance of winning is 30.39%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.
Portugal
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Ferreira A. (G) 
Batista G. 
Maracas (C) 
Rodri 
Stjepanovic M. 
Nunez A. 
Vallier L. 
Ramirez J. (C) 
Gower J. 
Joao L. 
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