Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 33

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday


	Morpeth Town		Ashton United

	1	X	2
	2.12	3.3	2.92
	2.29	3.64	2.68
	2.18	3.64	2.98	Watch
	2.25	3.3	2.63
	2.17	3.59	3.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.57)	3.49 ↓ (3.55)	2.85 ↑ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morpeth Town
41.6%

Draw
26.2%

Ashton United
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.2%

26.2%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

25.9%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morpeth Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Morpeth Town's performance.

Ashton United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ashton United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Morpeth Town than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ashton United than the current prediction. (+5%)

Morpeth Town - Ashton United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
31', 0 - 1, Newton S. (Penalty Awarded),
34', 1 - 1, Hooper J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Morpeth won 1.

Morpeth is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Ashton has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ashton may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Ashton has had a series of home games.

Morpeth might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Morpeth won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 18:21. (average 1.5:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Morpeth won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:12. (average 1.7:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Ashton Utd	10	3	3	4	12:11	1	12

Last Results with these Odds

Morpeth Town - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 36.17%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Ashton United - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 37.64%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morpeth Town
English NPL Premier Division
21.02.26	Workington - Morpeth Town	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Morpeth Town - Warrington Rylands	0:4 ✺
31.01.26	Morpeth Town - Guiseley	0:1 ✺
24.01.26	Morpeth Town - United of Manchester	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Morpeth Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLLWL
- Ashton United
English NPL Premier Division
21.02.26	Ashton United - Stockton Town	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Ashton United - Warrington Town	1:0 ✺
03.02.26	Ashton United - Gainsborough Trinity	0:3 ✺
31.01.26	Lancaster City - Ashton United	3:2 ✺
24.01.26	Ashton United - Warrington Rylands	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
15.11.25	Ashton United - Morpeth Town	3:2
14.12.24	Morpeth Town - Ashton United	1:4
07.09.24	Ashton United - Morpeth Town	0:1
20.01.24	Morpeth Town - Ashton United	3:3
03.10.23	Ashton United - Morpeth Town	4:3
04.02.23	Ashton United - Morpeth Town	1:0
13.09.22	Morpeth Town - Ashton United	3:1

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