Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 14

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles (Tegucigalpa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Honduras	Deportes TV


	Motagua		Real España

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.25	3.5
	1.92	3.15	3.55
	1.82	3.07	4.33
	2.06	3.28	3.59	Watch
	1.85	3.2	3.75
	1.83	3.67	3.98	Watch
	1.91	3.15	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (1.95)	3.25 ↓ (3.26)	3.73 ↑ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Motagua
47.8%

Draw
27.9%

Real España
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

27.7%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

25.3%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Motagua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Real España has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motagua than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real España than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Motagua - Real España Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Ortiz L. (G) 19. De Olivera R. 5. Discua O. 10. Gomez R. 27. Macias J. 35. Melendez C. 8. Melendez D. 11. Romario 34. Sacaza G. 12. Santos M. (C) 4. Vega L.	22. Lopez L. (G) 19. Aparicio D. 54. Arana M. 10. Benavidez J. 5. Flores F. 6. Garcia D. 11. Hernandez E. 28. Mejia C. 30. Sayago D. 44. Tatum Ferrera A. K. 18. Vuelto D.
Substitutes
14. Barrios A. 2. Cacho P. 29. John Kleber 25. Licona M. (G) 77. Mejia C. 21. Melendez L. 56. Palma C. 17. Portillo J. 23. Reyes A. 26. Santamaria L. 7. Serrano J. 6. Zapata R.	16. Arzu E. 4. Capeluto J. 27. Giron A. 23. Lopez R. (G) 36. Osorto R. 21. Palacios D. 58. Palacios Y. 34. Pike C. 15. Ramirez D. 49. Reyes H. (G) 7. Ritacco G. 26. Rodriguez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', Flores F. 🟨,
31', Melendez D. 🟨,
32', Arana M. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Hernandez E. ⚽,
44', Mejia C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Arana M. ↓, Capeluto J. ↑,
46', Melendez D. ↓, Reyes A. ↑,
52', Lopez L. 🟨,
63', Macias J. ↓, John Kleber ↑,
73', Vuelto D. ↓, Arzu E. ↑,
73', Mejia C. ↓, Palacios D. ↑,
73', Gomez R. ↓, Serrano J. ↑,
82', 1 - 1, John Kleber ⚽,
87', Sayago D. ↓, Ramirez D. ↑,
88', Romario ↓, Mejia C. ↑,
90+5', Tatum Ferrera A. K. ↓, Pike C. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Triangulares: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Triangulares: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Motagua won 2.

Motagua is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Real España has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Real España may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Motagua is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Motagua won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 27:29. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Motagua won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:14. (average 1.3:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Real Espana	8	5	3	0	13:4	9	18
4	Motagua	8	4	1	3	11:8	3	13

Last Results with these Odds

Motagua - the odds 1.95 are the expected chance of winning is 46.35%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Real España - the odds 3.49 are the expected chance of winning is 25.93%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Motagua
Honduras Liga Nacional
19.03.26	Platense - Motagua	0:1 ✺
11.03.26	Motagua - Lobos UPNFM	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Choloma - Motagua	1:3 ✺
01.03.26	Motagua - Olancho	1:1 ✺
25.02.26	Juticalpa - Motagua	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWTW
- Real España
Honduras Liga Nacional
18.03.26	Real España - Génesis PN	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Olancho - Real España	3:0 ✺
11.03.26	Real España - Victoria La Ceiba	4:1 ✺
08.03.26	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Real España	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Platense - Real España	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
01.02.26	Real España - Motagua	2:2
23.12.25	Real España - Motagua	1:1
13.12.25	Motagua - Real España	0:3
23.11.25	Real España - Motagua	1:2
31.08.25	Motagua - Real España	3:2
17.05.25	Real España - Motagua	2:0
14.05.25	Motagua - Real España	1:0

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