Match Info

BRAZIL: Copa do Nordeste - Round 5

Date: 5 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Governador João Castelo (São Luís)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Moto Club de São Luís		Sousa

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.4
	2.15	2.95	3.4
	2.09	3	3.45
	2.06	3.16	3.64
	2.03	3.16	3.6
	2.1	2.9	3.5
	1.99	3.1	3.66	Watch
	2.09	3	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.5)	3.03 ↑ (2.9)	3.51 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moto Club de São Luís
43.9%

Draw
30.1%

Sousa
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

31.3%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

28.6%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moto Club de São Luís has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Moto Club de São Luís's performance.

Sousa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sousa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moto Club de São Luís than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Moto Club de São Luís that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sousa than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sousa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	22.2%	22.2%

Moto Club de São Luís - Sousa Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Moto Club will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Sousa will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Moto Club: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Allan Thiago (G) 2. Bal 5. Felipe Dias 10. Hadrian 9. Jean 8. Lucas Gomes 3. Luis Fernando 4. Mauricio Pinto (C) 11. Rick Sena 7. Vitinho 6. Wadson	1. Bruno Fuso (C) 8. Ciro 7. Elielton 2. Gustavinho 3. Gustavo Silva 5. Hebert 6. Iranilson 4. Joao Rafael 11. Luan Rodrigues 15. Patrik 9. Wellington Nunes
Substitutes
13. Anderson Correa 16. Dos Anjos 12. Douglas Henrique (G) 21. Gustavo Rodrigues 14. Jeferson Bruno 19. Lopeu 22. Luis Gustavo 20. Luis Lipek 17. Paulo Renato 15. Richard 24. Vanilton (G) 18. Willyan Bolinha	10. Dhonata 17. Estevan 12. Joao Vitor (G) 19. Kiko 18. Matheusinho 13. Neto 16. Vinicius Silva

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
20', Lucas Gomes 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Mauricio Pinto ⚽,
36', Mauricio Pinto 🟨,
40', 2 - 0, Jean ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ciro ↓, Matheusinho ↑,
59', 3 - 0, Rick Sena ⚽,
61', 🟨,
63', Lucas Gomes ↓, Dos Anjos ↑,
63', Elielton ↓, Vinicius Silva ↑,
63', Hebert ↓, Dhonata ↑,
68', Felipe Dias 🟥,
71', 3 - 1, Gustavo Silva ⚽,
71', Rick Sena ↓, Richard ↑,
76', Bal ↓, Luis Gustavo ↑,
76', Jean ↓, Lopeu ↑,
77', 🟨,
78', Gustavinho ↓, Kiko ↑,
78', Iranilson ↓, Estevan ↑,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 8 and 7).

Recent matches Moto Club is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Sousa has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Moto Club could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Moto Club will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moto Club de São Luís
Brazilian Campeonato Maranhense
25.02.25	Moto Club de São Luís - IAPE	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
19.02.25	Sport Recife - Moto Club de São Luís	5:0 ✺
11.02.25	CRB Maceio - Moto Club de São Luís	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Maranhense
08.02.25	Moto Club de São Luís - Imperatriz de Desportos	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
05.02.25	Moto Club de São Luís - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLTLT
- Sousa
Copa do Brasil
27.02.25	Sousa - Red Bull Bragantino	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
22.02.25	Sousa - Botafogo PB	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
19.02.25	CRB Maceio - Sousa	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
16.02.25	Treze - Sousa	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
11.02.25	Sousa - Sport Recife	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLTL

Moto Club de São Luís - Sousa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide