Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 6

Date: 24 August 2024, Saturday

Location: Arena Lublin (Lublin)

Referee: Kuzma L. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3, Moja TV
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV


	Motor Lublin		Puszcza Niepołomice

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.2	3.7	Watch
	2.1	3.3	3.3
	2.1	3.4	3.4	Watch
	2.16	3.35	3.71
	2.12	3.33	3.6	Watch
	2.1	3.3	3.1
	2.12	3.42	3.32	Watch
	2.1	3.4	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.55)	3.34 ↑ (3.2)	3.44 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Motor Lublin
44.5%

Draw
28.2%

Puszcza Niepołomice
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

29.3%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

29.7%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Motor Lublin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Motor Lublin's performance.

Puszcza Niepołomice has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Puszcza Niepołomice might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Motor Lublin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Puszcza Niepołomice than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Puszcza Niepołomice could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	18.2%	45.5%

Motor Lublin - Puszcza Niepołomice Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Motor will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Puszcza will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Puszcza: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Brkic I. (G) 28. Stolarski P. 21. Rudol S. 18. Najemski A. 24. Luberecki F. 11. Caliskaner K. 37. Scalet M. 68. Wolski B. 77. Ceglarz P. (C) 90. Mraz S. 30. Ndiaye M. J.	1. Komar K. (G) 8. Mrozinski P. 22. Craciun A. 3. Yakuba R. 18. Siplak M. 5. Stepien K. 14. Serafin J. (C) 6. Lee Jin-Hyun 24. Blagaic J. 33. Abramowicz D. 35. Kosidis M.
Substitutes
39. Bartos M. 26. Krol M. 10. Krol R. 8. Kubica K. 3. Romanowski P. 1. Rosa K. (G) 6. Samper S. 9. Welniak K. 17. Wojcik F.	11. Cholewiak M. 70. Hajda W. 23. Kielis P. 31. Perchel M. (G) 17. Radecki M. 27. Solowiej L. 4. Szymonowicz D. 10. Tomalski H. 16. Walski M.
Coaches
Stolarski M.	Tulacz T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Craciun A. ↓, Szymonowicz D. ↑,
45+4', Szymonowicz D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Blagaic J. ↓, Cholewiak M. ↑,
63', Stolarski P. ↓, Wojcik F. ↑,
64', Caliskaner K. ↓, Krol M. ↑,
67', Najemski A. 🟨,
67', Abramowicz D. 🟨,
68', Kosidis M. ↓, Radecki M. ↑,
78', Ndiaye M. J. ↓, Romanowski P. ↑,
78', Ceglarz P. ↓, Krol R. ↑,
81', Serafin J. 🟨,
82', Serafin J. ↓, Hajda W. ↑,
82', Lee Jin-Hyun ↓, Tomalski H. ↑,
89', Mraz S. ↓, Welniak K. ↑,

Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Motor could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Motor: Kruk K. (Injury) Palacz K. (Injury) Samper S. (Injury)

There will not play in Puszcza: Kidric R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Puszcza: Siemaszko A. (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Motor won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Motor won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Last Results with these Odds

Motor Lublin - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 36.71%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Motor Lublin
Polish Ekstraklasa
16.08.24	GKS Katowice - Motor Lublin	0:0 ✺
04.08.24	Motor Lublin - Korona Kielce	1:1 ✺
26.07.24	Lechia Gdańsk - Motor Lublin	0:2 ✺
21.07.24	Motor Lublin - Raków Częstochowa	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.24	Radomiak Radom - Motor Lublin	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 TTWLT
- Puszcza Niepołomice
Polish Ekstraklasa
16.08.24	Puszcza Niepołomice - Lechia Gdańsk	4:1 ✺
11.08.24	Puszcza Niepołomice - Legia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
02.08.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:0 ✺
26.07.24	Puszcza Niepołomice - Górnik Zabrze	2:2 ✺
19.07.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Cup
26.09.23	Motor Lublin - Puszcza Niepołomice	0:1

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