Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 11

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Bellavista (Ambato)

Referee: Diaz A. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Ecuavisa, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Mushuc Runa		Deportivo Cuenca

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.5	5	Watch
	1.62	3.5	5.15
	1.68	3.65	5.82
	1.66	3.64	5.38	Watch
	1.65	3.25	4.75
	1.69	3.55	5.07	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (2.08)	3.52 ↑ (3.12)	5.2 ↑ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mushuc Runa
55.9%

Draw
26.3%

Deportivo Cuenca
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

29.4%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

29%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mushuc Runa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mushuc Runa's performance.

Deportivo Cuenca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportivo Cuenca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (-11.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mushuc Runa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Cuenca than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportivo Cuenca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Cuenca Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Deportivo Cuenca will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mushuc Runa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Formento R. (C) 26. Peralta K. 2. Flor F. 6. Negro B. 33. Hernandez J. 99. Angulo C. 5. Davila E. 23. Lemos L. 77. Velasco K. 30. Ibarra R. 81. Castelli F.	1. Ferrero F. (G) 2. Mosquera I. 23. Guevara E. (C) 18. Piedra M. 53. Erique Villigua Y. H. 8. Vega E. 43. Ordonez J. 21. Morocho S. 20. Garcia B. 19. Diaz M. 29. Klimowicz M.
Substitutes
12. Carabali F. 19. Carcelen J. 9. Carrillo R. 50. Cusme J. 11. Dibble N. 44. Gamboa M. 18. Gonzalez J. 7. Minda T. 32. Orejuela C. 42. Pabon W. (G) 17. Pico O. 8. Zambrano A.	37. Arboleda C. 28. Boolsen P. 49. Gonzalez D. 9. Leguizamon N. 25. Lopez A. 30. Maccari M. 16. Mejia J. 12. Minda E. (G) 6. Postel S. 50. Siguenza M. 13. Valencia J.
Coaches
Velez P.	Celico J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Klimowicz M. ⚽, Diaz M. (A),
13', Davila E. 🟨,
16', Mosquera I. 🟨,
22', 1 - 1, Lemos L. ⚽, Ibarra R. (A),
45+5', 2 - 1, Castelli F. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Garcia B. ↓, Gonzalez D. ↑,
46', Diaz M. ↓, Siguenza M. ↑,
46', Morocho S. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
58', Angulo C. ↓, Minda T. ↑,
63', 3 - 1, Ibarra R. ⚽, Velasco K. (A),
68', Vega E. ↓, Leguizamon N. ↑,
68', Mosquera I. ↓, Maccari M. ↑,
75', Ibarra R. 🟨,
75', Ibarra R. ↓, Zambrano A. ↑,
75', Castelli F. ↓, Carrillo R. ↑,
78', 4 - 1, Carrillo R. ⚽, Davila E. (A),
81', Velasco K. ↓, Dibble N. ↑,
81', Davila E. ↓, Carcelen J. ↑,
90+1', Ordonez J. 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 1.

Mushuc Runa is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Deportivo Cuenca's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mushuc Runa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Mushuc Runa is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 20:31. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Mushuc Runa won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:9. (average 1.4:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Mushuc Runa - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 44.16%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.04.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Mushuc Runa - Técnico Universitario	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Mushuc Runa - Manta	1:0 ✺
06.04.26	Libertad Loja - Mushuc Runa	2:2 ✺
22.03.26	Mushuc Runa - Emelec	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWWTW
- Deportivo Cuenca
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.04.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Orense	1:3 ✺
19.04.26	Manta - Deportivo Cuenca	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.04.26	San Lorenzo - Deportivo Cuenca	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.04.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Santos	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
27.06.25	Deportivo Cuenca - Mushuc Runa	1:0
01.03.25	Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Cuenca	3:1
19.10.24	Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Cuenca	1:1
26.04.24	Deportivo Cuenca - Mushuc Runa	5:0
21.10.23	Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Cuenca	1:1
12.05.23	Deportivo Cuenca - Mushuc Runa	3:0
21.10.22	Deportivo Cuenca - Mushuc Runa	3:1

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