Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 23

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Hiiu Stadium (Tallinn)

Referee: Pukk M. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Nõmme Kalju		Pärnu Vaprus

	1	X	2
	1.37	4.60	6.00
	1.4	4.15	6.8
	1.44	4.7	6.57
	1.43	4.69	6.35	Watch
	1.42	4.6	6.5
	1.44	4.75	6.07	Watch
	1.39	4.7	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.44)	4.6 ↑ (4.18)	6.33 ↑ (6.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nõmme Kalju
65.3%

Draw
20.1%

Pärnu Vaprus
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.4%

21.8%

14.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.7%

21%

14.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nõmme Kalju has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Pärnu Vaprus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nõmme Kalju than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pärnu Vaprus than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Nõmme Kalju - Pärnu Vaprus Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Perk H. (C) 46. Vukusic R. 50. Podholjuzin M. 5. Korre U. 4. Borolinstsikov A. 8. Musolitin O. 26. Siht R. 59. Vastsuk B. 21. Baptista T. 11. Orlov M. 10. Ivanov N.	16. Nomm O. (C) 43. Seppik M. 28. Lipp M. 15. Aloe K. 90. Sild J. 8. Pajo T. 20. Valja H. 10. Viidas S. 14. Orm R. 17. Kapper S. 42. Limberg M.
Substitutes
52. Idalecio 30. Jabir I. 74. Jekimov F. 17. Lotar Eyang E. E. 22. Nikolajev A. 69. Pavlov M. (G) 88. Sotsugov D. 20. Tambedou M. 7. Tarassenkov D.	5. Aer S. 11. Kauber K. 19. Korre A. 66. Nomm U. 9. Poder J. 12. Ristimets M. (G) 1. Vainu H. (G) 7. Vallik V. 4. Villota M. 24. Villota M.
Coaches
Andreev N.	Prins I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Musolitin O. ⚽, Orlov M. (A),
13', 2 - 0, Siht R. ⚽, Ivanov N. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Orm R. ↓, Villota M. ↑,
46', Vukusic R. ↓, Tambedou M. ↑,
53', Pajo T. 🟨,
53', Ivanov N. 🟨,
56', 3 - 0, Orlov M. ⚽,
58', Borolinstsikov A. ↓, Nikolajev A. ↑,
66', Viidas S. 🟨,
66', Musolitin O. 🟨,
74', Orlov M. ↓, Lotar Eyang E. E. ↑,
74', Baptista T. ↓, Jekimov F. ↑,
79', Viidas S. ↓, Vallik V. ↑,
79', Kapper S. ↓, Kauber K. ↑,
85', Limberg M. ↓, Poder J. ↑,
85', Pajo T. ↓, Korre A. ↑,
88', Nikolajev A. 🟨,
90+1', 3 - 1, Sild J. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nõmme Kalju won 1.

Nõmme Kalju is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Pärnu Vaprus's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Nõmme Kalju may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Nõmme Kalju is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nõmme Kalju won 13 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 44:20. (average 2.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Nõmme Kalju won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:8. (average 1.9:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Kalju	29	15	5	9	52:27	25	50
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	29	10	4	15	39:57	-18	34

Last Results with these Odds

Nõmme Kalju - the odds 1.44 are the expected chance of winning is 63.36%, but this team recently wins 73% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nõmme Kalju FC
Estonian Meistriliiga
08.08.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme Kalju	0:2 ✺
02.08.26	Nõmme Kalju - Tammeka	5:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Nõmme Kalju - Shelbourne	2:1 ✺
23.07.26	Shelbourne - Nõmme Kalju	5:2 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
19.07.26	Kuressaare - Nõmme Kalju	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWWLT
- Pärnu JK Vaprus
Estonian Meistriliiga
02.08.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Levadia Tallinn	1:1 ✺
18.07.26	Narva Trans - Pärnu Vaprus	3:1 ✺
11.07.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Tammeka	5:1 ✺
04.07.26	Paide LM - Pärnu Vaprus	3:1 ✺
26.06.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Kuressaare	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
30.05.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme Kalju	3:1
26.04.26	Nõmme Kalju - Pärnu Vaprus	1:2
05.10.25	Nõmme Kalju - Pärnu Vaprus	1:0
10.08.25	Nõmme Kalju - Pärnu Vaprus	1:2
27.06.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme Kalju	2:2
01.03.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme Kalju	0:3
Club Friendly
24.01.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme Kalju	1:3

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