Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 19

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Männiku Stadium (Tallinn)

Referee: Laane K. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Nõmme United		Kuressaare

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.82	3.60	3.40
	1.95	3.75	3.15
	1.85	4.23	3.57
	1.93	3.8	3.46	Watch
	1.82	4.15	3.30
	1.83	3.98	3.67	Watch
	1.84	3.80	3.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.78)	3.9 ↑ (3.74)	3.42 ↓ (3.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nõmme United
49.5%

Draw
23.6%

Kuressaare
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

24.4%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

23.5%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nõmme United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Kuressaare has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nõmme United than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kuressaare than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	37.5%	0%

Nõmme United - Kuressaare Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Nõmme United will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nõmme United: 29% – 96%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB, 1st Half - Nõmme United (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nõmme United (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lagus G. (G) 8. Vain B. 55. Chanda R. 2. Morishige Y. 6. Palts M. 11. Chisala B. 10. Frolov A. 26. Oostenbrink K. 13. Truuvaart A. 49. Beglarishvili Z. 19. Krasnov I.	31. Nomm K. (G) 23. Saar R. 36. Piil R. 21. Lukka M. 27. Prunn S. 5. Sinilaid S. 8. Andreas D. 17. Roivassepp G. 77. Demidov E. 11. Jurisoo T. 10. Kivi A.
Substitutes
4. Alteberg A. 16. Dacosta O. 45. Jarvelaid H. 23. Laanelaid K. 20. Matas K. 3. Merilai S. 91. Ortega R. (G) 9. Ounapuu E. 71. Purg G. (G) 14. Vassiljev N. 52. Vendelin T.	18. Dzemesjuk M. 37. Leivategija M. 25. Lonks J. 28. Lukas R. 22. Ristna S. (G) 68. Vahermagi J. 70. Vahermagi J. 13. Visse A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45+1', 0 - 1, Jurisoo T. ⚽, Prunn S. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Vain B. ↓, Jarvelaid H. ↑,
56', Chisala B. 🟨,
63', Krasnov I. ↓, Matas K. ↑,
63', Chisala B. ↓, Ounapuu E. ↑,
63', Truuvaart A. ↓, Laanelaid K. ↑,
72', Matas K. 🟨,
74', Kivi A. ↓, Visse A. ↑,
74', Roivassepp G. ↓, Vahermagi J. ↑,
75', 1 - 1, Matas K. ⚽,
80', 2 - 1, Oostenbrink K. ⚽, Frolov A. (A),
81', Oostenbrink K. ↓, Vendelin T. ↑,
84', Sinilaid S. ↓, Lukas R. ↑,
84', Demidov E. ↓, Leivategija M. ↑,
90', Prunn S. ↓, Vahermagi J. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 2, Morishige Y. (Own goal),
90+7', 3 - 2, Beglarishvili Z. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nõmme United won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Nõmme United will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Nõmme United won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:17. (average 1.7:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Nõmme United won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 2:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Kuressaare	29	8	5	16	31:49	-18	29
9	Nomme Utd	29	9	1	19	47:68	-21	28

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nõmme United
Estonian Meistriliiga
03.07.26	Nõmme United - Nõmme Kalju	1:3 ✺
20.06.26	Harju JK Laagri - Nõmme United	1:3 ✺
17.06.26	Nõmme United - Levadia Tallinn	1:2 ✺
13.06.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme United	1:2 ✺
29.05.26	Nõmme United - Flora Tallinn	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWLWL
- FC Kuressaare
Estonian Meistriliiga
02.07.26	Kuressaare - Flora Tallinn	0:3 ✺
26.06.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Kuressaare	1:0 ✺
16.06.26	Kuressaare - Narva Trans	0:0 ✺
13.06.26	Harju JK Laagri - Kuressaare	2:3 ✺
31.05.26	Paide LM - Kuressaare	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 LLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
20.05.26	Kuressaare - Nõmme United	2:1
25.04.26	Nõmme United - Kuressaare	2:1
Club Friendly
07.02.26	Kuressaare - Nõmme United	3:3
19.01.25	Kuressaare - Nõmme United	2:1
Estonian Meistriliiga
28.09.24	Kuressaare - Nõmme United	4:1
01.09.24	Nõmme United - Kuressaare	2:2
16.06.24	Kuressaare - Nõmme United	1:1

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