Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 28

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Max-Morlock-Stadion (Nuremberg)

Referee: Gerach T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria
Belgium	DAZN 1, Play Sports 1
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, WOW
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Hungary	Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay
Israel	Sport 3
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	DAZN 3
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	SportKlub 1
Slovakia	Sport TV2, Voyo
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	beIN Connect, Tivibu Spor 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Disney+, Onefootball


	Nürnberg		Hamburger SV

	1	X	2
	3.7	4.1	1.8	Watch
	3.6	3.9	1.93
	3.85	3.9	1.81	Watch
	3.98	4.02	1.82	Watch
	3.4	3.75	1.95
	3.92	4.17	1.79	Watch
	3.85	3.9	1.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.76 ↑ (3.16)	3.96 ↑ (3.76)	1.84 ↓ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nürnberg
25.1%

Draw
23.8%

Hamburger SV
51.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.8%

25%

45.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

25.1%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nürnberg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hamburger SV's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nürnberg than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hamburger SV, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	5.6%	72.2%

Nürnberg - Hamburger SV Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Nürnberg will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). Hamburg will win (votes: 13 - 72.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hamburg: 51.5% – 92.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hamburger SV will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Reichert J. (G) 4. Gruber F. 33. Seidel N. 44. Karafiat O. 32. Janisch T. 20. Jander C. 18. Lubach R. 21. Yilmaz B. 10. Justvan J. (C) 36. Schleimer L. 28. Antiste J.	1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 2. Mikelbrencis W. 4. Schonlau S. (C) 8. Elfadli D. 28. Muheim M. 17. Karabec A. 6. Poreba L. 14. Reis L. 29. Sahiti E. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 7. Dompe J.
Substitutes
3. Danilo Soares 30. Emreli M. 6. Flick F. 34. Forkel D. 35. Joachims S. 26. Mathenia C. (G) 23. Serra J. 22. Valentini E. 2. Villadsen O.	39. Agyekum J. 45. Balde F. 9. Glatzel R. 30. Hefti S. 12. Mickel T. (G) 10. Pherai I. 20. Richter M. 38. Rossing-Lelesiit A. 49. Stange O.
Coaches
Klose M.	Polzin M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
9', 0 - 1, Dompe J. ⚽,
9', Janisch T. 🟨,
9', Dompe J. 🟨,
16', Antiste J. 🟥,
23', Seidel N. 🟨,
37', 0 - 2, Dompe J. ⚽, Reis L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Jander C. 🟨,
57', Schleimer L. ↓, Emreli M. ↑,
58', Karafiat O. ↓, Forkel D. ↑,
63', Lubach R. 🟨,
63', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Glatzel R. ↑,
64', Karabec A. ↓, Richter M. ↑,
76', Yilmaz B. ↓, Danilo Soares ↑,
76', Lubach R. ↓, Flick F. ↑,
78', Emreli M. 🟨,
81', Sahiti E. ↓, Balde F. ↑,
81', Muheim M. ↓, Hefti S. ↑,
84', Janisch T. ↓, Villadsen O. ↑,
84', 0 - 3, Glatzel R. ⚽, Dompe J. (A),
87', Dompe J. ↓, Stange O. ↑,
88', Reis L. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 8 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nürnberg won 0.

Recent matches Nürnberg is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Hamburg is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Hamburg could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Hamburg will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Nürnberg: Castrop J. (Yellow Cards) Knoche R. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Hamburg: Jatta B. (Knee Injury) Katterbach N. (Knee Injury) Raab M. (Broken Hand) Soumahoro A. (Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Nürnberg: Tzimas S. (Illness)

There are questionable in Hamburg: Dompe J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Hadzikadunic D. (Injury) Meffert J. (Broken nose) Selke D. (Illness)

Last 18 head-to-head matches Nürnberg won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 15:41 (average 0.8:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Nürnberg won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 6:19 (average 0.7:2.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Nürnberg
German 2 Bundesliga
30.03.25	Jahn Regensburg - Nürnberg	2:1 ✺
16.03.25	Nürnberg - Greuther Fürth	3:0 ✺
09.03.25	Preußen Münster - Nürnberg	0:1 ✺
01.03.25	Nürnberg - Hannover	1:2 ✺
21.02.25	Hertha Berlin - Nürnberg	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LWWLT
- Hamburger SV
German 2 Bundesliga
28.03.25	Hamburger SV - Elversberg	0:0 ✺
14.03.25	Magdeburg - Hamburger SV	0:3 ✺
08.03.25	Hamburger SV - Fortuna Düsseldorf	4:1 ✺
02.03.25	Paderborn - Hamburger SV	2:0 ✺
21.02.25	Hamburger SV - Kaiserslautern	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
03.11.24	Hamburger SV - Nürnberg	1:1
19.05.24	Hamburger SV - Nürnberg	4:1
16.12.23	Nürnberg - Hamburger SV	0:2
04.03.23	Hamburger SV - Nürnberg	3:0
27.08.22	Nürnberg - Hamburger SV	0:2
05.03.22	Nürnberg - Hamburger SV	2:1
German DFB Pokal
26.10.21	Nürnberg - Hamburger SV	1:2 penalties

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