Match Info

NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie - Round 14

Date: 30 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Rat Verlegh Stadion (Breda)

Referee: van den Kerkhof M. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra


	NAC Breda		Almere City

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.5	5	Watch
	1.83	3.5	4.5
	1.78	3.55	4.7
	1.82	3.5	4.75
	1.79	3.5	4.84	Watch
	1.75	3.6	4.5
	1.78	3.65	4.64	Watch
	1.78	3.55	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (2.31)	3.54 ↓ (3.69)	4.7 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

NAC Breda
53.1%

Draw
26.7%

Almere City
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

25.8%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.9%

25%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

NAC Breda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in NAC Breda's performance.

Almere City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Almere City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (-13.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with NAC Breda that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almere City than the current prediction. (+13.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Almere City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

NAC Breda - Almere City Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Breda will win (votes: 18 - 90%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Breda: 76.9% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Bielica D. (G) 2. Lucassen B. 12. Greiml L. 5. Van den Bergh J. (C) 4. Kemper B. 16. Balard M. 7. Garbett M. 8. Leemans C. 19. Fernandes S. 10. Omarsson E. 77. Sauer L.	1. Bakker N. (G) 20. Akujobi H. 3. Jacobs Jo. 15. Lawrence J. 14. Zagaritis V. 5. Ritmeester van de Kamp J. 16. Nalic A. 8. Tahiri A. 27. Delaurier-Chaubet L. 9. Robinet T. (C) 11. Kadile J.
Substitutes
39. Janosek D. 20. Jensen F. 14. Kaied A. 23. Kongolo T. 1. Kortsmit R. (G) 9. Kostorz K. 17. Kuijpers R. 15. Mahmutovic E. 28. Mol L. 11. Paula R. 21. Royo M. 6. Staring C.	23. Balboa A. 2. Dankerlui D. 34. Foah-Sam A. 17. Hansen K. 19. Haye T. 26. Keller S. (G) 25. Mamengi C. 24. Mattoir F. 7. Providence R. 28. Receveur T. 29. Wendlinger J. (G)
Coaches
Hoefkens C.	Maduro H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Sauer L. ⚽, Leemans C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Ritmeester van de Kamp J. 🟨,
56', Delaurier-Chaubet L. ↓, Hansen K. ↑,
58', Garbett M. ↓, Mol L. ↑,
63', Lucassen B. 🟨,
72', Nalic A. ↓, Providence R. ↑,
78', Lawrence J. ↓, Mamengi C. ↑,
78', Tahiri A. ↓, Haye T. ↑,
79', Kadile J. ↓, Mattoir F. ↑,
79', Fernandes S. ↓, Paula R. ↑,
79', Kemper B. ↓, Royo M. ↑,
79', Leemans C. ↓, Jensen F. ↑,
90+2', Sauer L. ↓, Kongolo T. ↑,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 11 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Breda won 2.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

In this match Breda is a favorite.

There will not play in Breda: Valerius C. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Almere City: Balboa A. (Muscle Injury) Guillaume B. (Foot Injury)

Last 14 head-to-head matches Breda won 8 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 21:11 (average 1.5:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Breda won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 14:7 (average 1.8:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NAC Breda
Dutch Eredivisie
24.11.24	Willem II - NAC Breda	2:2 ✺
09.11.24	NAC Breda - PSV Eindhoven	0:3 ✺
02.11.24	Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda	2:0 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
30.10.24	BVV Barendrecht - NAC Breda	2:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
26.10.24	NAC Breda - Waalwijk	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TLLLW
- Almere City FC
Dutch Eredivisie
23.11.24	Go Ahead Eagles - Almere City	3:0 ✺
10.11.24	Almere City - Feyenoord	1:4 ✺
03.11.24	Waalwijk - Almere City	2:0 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
30.10.24	Quick Boys - Almere City	3:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
25.10.24	Almere City - NEC Nijmegen	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
07.05.23	Almere City - NAC Breda	0:2
16.12.22	NAC Breda - Almere City	0:1
16.04.22	Almere City - NAC Breda	1:2
10.12.21	NAC Breda - Almere City	1:1
Club Friendly
27.07.21	NAC Breda - Almere City	1:2
Dutch Eerste Divisie
01.02.21	NAC Breda - Almere City	4:0
23.10.20	Almere City - NAC Breda	2:0

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