Match Info

NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie - Round 10

Date: 26 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Rat Verlegh Stadion (Breda)

Referee: Kooij J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 1


	NAC Breda		Waalwijk

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.8	4.75	Watch
	1.7	3.8	4.8
	1.7	3.9	4.85	Watch
	1.7	3.92	5.17
	1.7	3.9	4.85	Watch
	1.7	3.75	4.6
	1.71	3.94	4.71	Watch
	1.7	3.9	4.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (2.02)	3.86 ↑ (3.79)	4.82 ↑ (3.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

NAC Breda
55.8%

Draw
24.5%

Waalwijk
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

25%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

25.3%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

NAC Breda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in NAC Breda's performance.

Waalwijk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Waalwijk might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with NAC Breda that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Waalwijk than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Waalwijk could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81%	14.3%	4.8%

NAC Breda - Waalwijk Predictions

Users Predictions: NAC Breda will win (17 of 21 users predict this - 80.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.15% – 97.75%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Bielica D. (G) 2. Lucassen B. 12. Greiml L. 5. Van den Bergh J. (C) 4. Kemper B. 16. Balard M. 8. Leemans C. 20. Jensen F. 11. Paula R. 10. Omarsson E. 77. Sauer L.	21. van Osch Y. (G) 2. Lelieveld J. 17. van Eijma R. 4. Van Gelderen L. 5. Familia-Castillo J. 30. Weidmann D. 22. van de Loo T. 24. Roemeratoe G. (C) 18. van der Water S. 19. Margaret R. 7. Cleonise D.
Substitutes
7. Garbett M. 39. Janosek D. 14. Kaied A. 23. Kongolo T. 1. Kortsmit R. (G) 9. Kostorz K. 17. Kuijpers R. 15. Mahmutovic E. 21. Royo M. 6. Staring C. 49. Troost T. (G)	33. Al Mazyani F. 35. Felida K. 1. Houwen J. (G) 52. Ihattaren M. 13. Kesting J. (G) 14. Lokesa C. 10. Niemeijer R. 6. Oukili Y. 20. Takidine I. 3. Van den Buijs D. 23. van der Venne R. 34. Wouters L. 9. Zawada O.
Coaches
Hoefkens C.	Fraser H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
11', Roemeratoe G. 🟨,
13', 1 - 0, Leemans C. ⚽,
29', Van den Bergh J. 🟨,
37', 2 - 0, Leemans C. ⚽, Kemper B. (A),
40', Greiml L. 🟨,
45+2', 2 - 1, Jensen F. (Own goal),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', van de Loo T. ↓, Ihattaren M. ↑,
46', Lelieveld J. ↓, Al Mazyani F. ↑,
46', Cleonise D. ↓, Zawada O. ↑,
51', Familia-Castillo J. 🟨,
58', Al Mazyani F. 🟨,
60', 3 - 1, Sauer L. (Pen),
61', Roemeratoe G. ↓, Oukili Y. ↑,
67', Al Mazyani F. 🟥,
68', Omarsson E. ↓, Kostorz K. ↑,
68', Leemans C. ↓, Janosek D. ↑,
69', van der Water S. ↓, Van den Buijs D. ↑,
77', Paula R. ↓, Kaied A. ↑,
77', Sauer L. ↓, Kuijpers R. ↑,
87', Kemper B. ↓, Royo M. ↑,
90', 4 - 1, Greiml L. ⚽, Janosek D. (A),

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 9 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Breda won 2.

Recent matches Breda is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Waalwijk has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recently Breda have a series of guest games.

In this match Breda is a favorite.

There will not play in Breda: Valerius C. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Waalwijk: Kramer M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Waalwijk: El Harmazi N. (Shoulder Injury) van der Venne R. (Injury)

Last 15 head-to-head matches Breda won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 23:24 (average 1.5:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Breda won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 13:15 (average 1.4:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NAC Breda
Dutch Eredivisie
20.10.24	Zwolle - NAC Breda	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
10.10.24	ADO Den Haag - NAC Breda	0:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
05.10.24	NAC Breda - NEC Nijmegen	1:0 ✺
29.09.24	Twente - NAC Breda	1:0 ✺
22.09.24	Feyenoord - NAC Breda	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WWWLL
- RKC Waalwijk
Dutch Eredivisie
19.10.24	Waalwijk - Twente	2:2 ✺
05.10.24	Utrecht - Waalwijk	3:2 ✺
29.09.24	Waalwijk - Ajax	0:2 ✺
21.09.24	Waalwijk - Sparta Rotterdam	1:2 ✺
15.09.24	Willem II - Waalwijk	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
19.07.23	NAC Breda - Waalwijk	2:3
18.08.20	Waalwijk - NAC Breda	0:2
23.07.19	NAC Breda - Waalwijk	0:2
Dutch KNVB Beker
25.09.18	Waalwijk - NAC Breda	2:0
Club Friendly
22.07.17	NAC Breda - Waalwijk	2:1
Dutch Eerste Divisie
10.02.17	NAC Breda - Waalwijk	2:3
16.09.16	Waalwijk - NAC Breda	2:4

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