Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 23

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Asito Stadium (Almelo)

Referee: Makkelie D. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Heracles Almelo		NAC Breda

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.4	2.45	Watch
	2.88	3.25	2.52
	2.9	3.4	2.54
	2.87	3.33	2.48	Watch
	2.75	3.2	2.4
	2.93	3.46	2.5	Watch
	2.8	3.2	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↑ (2.51)	3.32 ↓ (3.48)	2.48 ↓ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heracles Almelo
33.2%

Draw
28.6%

NAC Breda
38.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

26.9%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

26%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heracles Almelo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

NAC Breda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Heracles Almelo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.4%	35.3%	35.3%

Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Heracles will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). Breda will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Breda: 12.6% – 58%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Heracles (votes: 1 - 20%). Breda (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Heracles (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Heracles (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Heracles (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Heracles (votes: 4 - 50%). Breda (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pasveer R. (G) 23. te Wierik M. 6. Cestic S. 24. Mesik I. 2. Benita M. 70. Hrustic A. 4. Mirani D. (C) 5. van der Kust D. 73. Ould Chikh W. 9. Unuvar N. 19. Kulenovic L.	99. Bielica D. (G) 25. Valerius C. 12. Greiml L. 8. Leemans C. 4. Kemper B. (C) 16. Balard M. 90. Holtby L. 14. Sowah K. 7. Brym C. 24. Ayew A. 9. Soumano M.
Substitutes
14. Ahlstrand E. 39. Blokhuis S. 18. Bozinovski R. 10. Bruns T. 16. Jansink T. (G) 30. Mantel R. (G) 27. Tijink J. 17. van Gilst T. 13. Zamburek J.	21. Candelaria J. 55. Ghalidi B. 1. Kortsmit R. (G) 31. Lamprou K. (G) 2. Lucassen B. 15. Mahmutovic E. 10. Nassoh M. 3. Odoi D. 11. Paula R. 26. Reulen P. 19. Salama A. 32. Talvitie J.
Coaches
Faber E.	Hoefkens C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Greiml L. ↓, Odoi D. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Holtby L. 🟨,
60', Benita M. ↓, Bozinovski R. ↑,
61', Ould Chikh W. ↓, Ahlstrand E. ↑,
76', Soumano M. ↓, Salama A. ↑,
80', 0 - 1, Leemans C. (Penalty Awarded),
84', Brym C. ↓, Lucassen B. ↑,
85', Leemans C. ↓, Mahmutovic E. ↑,
90', van der Kust D. ↓, van Gilst T. ↑,
90', Unuvar N. ↓, Bruns T. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 3.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Breda may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 11 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 40:24. (average 2.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Heracles won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:6. (average 2.7:0.9).

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

Heracles: 35.06% NAC Breda: 15.78%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Heracles Almelo
Dutch Eredivisie
07.02.26	NEC Nijmegen - Heracles Almelo	4:1 ✺
01.02.26	Heracles Almelo - Fortuna Sittard	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Feyenoord - Heracles Almelo	4:2 ✺
18.01.26	Heracles Almelo - Twente	0:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
14.01.26	Go Ahead Eagles - Heracles Almelo	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLLL
- NAC Breda
Dutch Eredivisie
06.02.26	NAC Breda - Excelsior	0:2 ✺
30.01.26	NAC Breda - Twente	2:2 ✺
24.01.26	PSV Eindhoven - NAC Breda	2:2 ✺
17.01.26	NAC Breda - NEC Nijmegen	3:4 ✺
10.01.26	Groningen - NAC Breda	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.3 LTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch KNVB Beker
29.10.25	NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo	1:4
Dutch Eredivisie
20.09.25	NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo	2:1
31.01.25	NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo	1:1
02.11.24	Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda	2:0
Dutch Eerste Divisie
12.05.23	NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo	0:3
11.11.22	Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda	5:1
Dutch Eredivisie
06.04.19	Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda	1:0

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