Match Info

NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie - Round 13

Date: 24 November 2024, Sunday

Location: Koning Willem II Stadion (Tilburg)

Referee: Lindhout A. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1, ESPN Extra


	Willem II		NAC Breda

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.2	3.4	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.5
	2.28	3.15	3.35	Watch
	2.31	3.13	3.66
	2.26	3.08	3.53	Watch
	2.2	3.2	3.3
	2.22	3.26	3.39	Watch
	2.28	3.15	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (2.06)	3.16 ↓ (3.3)	3.44 ↓ (3.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Willem II
42.2%

Draw
30.1%

NAC Breda
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

28.7%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

29.1%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Willem II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

NAC Breda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Willem II than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	70%	10%

Willem II - NAC Breda Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Willem II will win (votes: 4 - 20%). Breda will win (votes: 2 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 49.9% – 90.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Didillon T. (G) 25. Tirpan M. 30. Behounek R. 33. St. Jago T. 5. Sigurgeirsson R. 6. Lambert B. 11. Kehrer E. 8. Bosch J. (C) 16. Meerveld R. 9. Vaesen K. 14. Sandra C.	99. Bielica D. (G) 2. Lucassen B. 12. Greiml L. 5. Van den Bergh J. (C) 4. Kemper B. 16. Balard M. 20. Jensen F. 7. Garbett M. 8. Leemans C. 77. Sauer L. 10. Omarsson E.
Substitutes
18. Bokila J. 7. Doodeman N. 17. Joosten P. 34. Lachkar A. 48. Mathijsen J. 22. Nizet R. 15. Pivas M. 35. Razak K. 4. Schouten E. 41. Schut M. (G) 24. van den Berg C. (G)	19. Fernandes S. 39. Janosek D. 14. Kaied A. 23. Kongolo T. 1. Kortsmit R. (G) 9. Kostorz K. 17. Kuijpers R. 15. Mahmutovic E. 28. Mol L. 11. Paula R. 21. Royo M. 6. Staring C.
Coaches
Maes P.	Hoefkens C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', 0 - 1, Sauer L. ⚽, Balard M. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
53', 0 - 2, Greiml L. ⚽, Van den Bergh J. (A),
61', 1 - 2, Bosch J. ⚽,
62', Vaesen K. 🟨,
63', Vaesen K. ↓, Bokila J. ↑,
63', Lambert B. ↓, Lachkar A. ↑,
63', Sigurgeirsson R. ↓, Nizet R. ↑,
65', Garbett M. ↓, Kongolo T. ↑,
65', Omarsson E. ↓, Kostorz K. ↑,
66', Tirpan M. 🟨,
73', Jensen F. ↓, Staring C. ↑,
74', Leemans C. ↓, Janosek D. ↑,
74', Kehrer E. ↓, Joosten P. ↑,
89', Bokila J. 🟨,
90+1', Van den Bergh J. 🟨,
90+8', 2 - 2, Bokila J. (Pen),

Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 10 and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Willem II won 2.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Breda could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Willem II will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Willem II: Ahmed Fatah A. (Injury) Vermeulen V. (Injury)

There will not play in Breda: Valerius C. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Willem II: Mathieu D. (Knock) Razak K. (Injury) Schouten E. (Injury) van Berkel N. (Knee Injury)

Last 14 head-to-head matches Willem II won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 19:21 (average 1.4:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Willem II won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11:10 (average 1.6:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Willem II
Dutch Eredivisie
10.11.24	AZ Alkmaar - Willem II	1:2 ✺
02.11.24	Willem II - Twente	0:1 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
30.10.24	Genemuiden - Willem II	2:3 ET ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
27.10.24	Ajax - Willem II	1:0 ✺
20.10.24	Willem II - Fortuna Sittard	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 WLWLT
- NAC Breda
Dutch Eredivisie
09.11.24	NAC Breda - PSV Eindhoven	0:3 ✺
02.11.24	Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda	2:0 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
30.10.24	BVV Barendrecht - NAC Breda	2:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
26.10.24	NAC Breda - Waalwijk	4:1 ✺
20.10.24	Zwolle - NAC Breda	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
22.12.23	NAC Breda - Willem II	1:2
05.09.23	Willem II - NAC Breda	1:4
25.04.23	NAC Breda - Willem II	1:1
11.12.22	Willem II - NAC Breda	1:2
Dutch Eredivisie
20.01.19	Willem II - NAC Breda	2:0
21.10.18	NAC Breda - Willem II	2:2
15.04.18	NAC Breda - Willem II	1:2

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