Match Info

Date: 18 October 2020, Sunday


	Nacional		Atletico Fenix Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.75	4.5	Watch
	1.7	3.75	4.1	Watch
	1.68	3.7	4
	1.68	3.7	4.2
	1.72	4.14	4.68
	1.67	3.7	4.5
	1.72	3.86	4.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.64)	3.8 ↓ (3.9)	4.33 ↓ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
54.5%

Draw
24.2%

Atletico Fenix Montevideo
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.3%

23.6%

20.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

14.3%

33.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Atletico Fenix Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-20.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nacional that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atletico Fenix Montevideo than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atletico Fenix Montevideo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Nacional - Atletico Fenix Montevideo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Recent matches Nacional is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Fenix is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fenix could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Nacional is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Nacional won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Nacional won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
17.10.20	Braga - Nacional	2:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
14.10.20	Nacional - Rentistas	0:0 ✺
11.10.20	Nacional - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1 ✺
07.10.20	Boston River - Nacional	1:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.10.20	Nacional - BSAD	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTTTT
- Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.10.20	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:0 ✺
06.10.20	Montevideo Wanderers - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:2 ✺
19.09.20	Cerro Largo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:0 ✺
13.09.20	Rentistas - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:1 ✺
10.09.20	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.9 TWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
29.08.20	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Nacional	1:2
07.11.19	Nacional - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:0
20.04.19	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Nacional	4:4

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