Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 30

Date: 22 April 2024, Monday

Location: Estádio da Madeira (Funchal)

Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV6, Sport TV+


	Nacional		Benfica B

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.8	4.5
	1.7	3.5	4
	1.8	3.75	4	Watch
	1.82	3.92	4.41
	1.79	3.92	4.41
	1.7	3.7	4
	1.75	3.74	4.11	Watch
	1.75	3.6	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.77)	3.74 ↓ (3.8)	4.18 ↓ (4.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
53%

Draw
24.8%

Benfica B
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.1%

24.8%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.7%

24.5%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

The chances for Benfica B have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica B than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Nacional - Benfica B Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Encarnacao R. (G) 2. Aurelio J. (C) 4. Paulo Vitor 40. Ulisses 5. Jose Gomes 8. Danilovic V. 10. Esteves L. 11. Witi 28. Carlos Daniel 77. Gustavo 9. Ramirez J.	75. Gomes A. (G) 82. Spencer D. 76. Gustavo Marques 81. Bajrami A. (C) 48. Rodrigues R. 74. Jevsenak Z. 60. Felix N. 77. Sousa G. 80. Santos P. 52. Pereira H. 89. Varela G.
Substitutes
71. Diga 99. Dudu 20. Jota Garces 7. Macedo R. 21. Marakis S. 3. Pola J. 18. Sousa A. 55. Sousa A. 12. Vinicius Machado (G)	88. Caue 79. Felix H. 55. Fonseca J. 62. Lacroix L. 83. Luis R. 86. Prioste D. 84. Rego J. 92. Souza P. (G) 71. Tome J.
Coaches
Margarido T.	Verissimo N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
1', Witi 🟨,
25', 1 - 0, Carlos Daniel ⚽, Witi (A),
27', Santos P. 🟨,
45', 2 - 0, Gustavo ⚽, Carlos Daniel (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', 3 - 0, Ramirez J. ⚽,
56', Jevsenak Z. ↓, Felix H. ↑,
56', Pereira H. ↓, Rego J. ↑,
56', Santos P. ↓, Luis R. ↑,
72', Sousa G. 🟨,
74', Jose Gomes ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
74', Carlos Daniel ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
74', Gustavo ↓, Macedo R. ↑,
81', Varela G. ↓, Tome J. ↑,
81', Sousa G. ↓, Caue ↑,
84', Witi ↓, Dudu ↑,
89', Danilovic V. ↓, Jota Garces ↑,
90+1', 3 - 1, Rego J. ⚽, Felix N. (A),

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal (Promotion: ) and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nacional won 2.

Nacional is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Benfica B is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Nacional is a favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Nacional won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Nacional won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Portuguese Liga 2
14.04.24	Paços de Ferreira - Nacional	1:1 ✺
06.04.24	Nacional - AVS	2:1 ✺
30.03.24	Leiria - Nacional	1:1 ✺
17.03.24	Santa Clara - Nacional	0:1 ✺
09.03.24	Nacional - Académico de Viseu	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 TWTWT
- Benfica B
Portuguese Liga 2
13.04.24	Benfica B - AVS	0:1 ✺
07.04.24	Oliveirense - Benfica B	3:1 ✺
01.04.24	Benfica B - Académico de Viseu	1:1 ✺
16.03.24	Penafiel - Benfica B	0:1 ✺
09.03.24	Benfica B - Santa Clara	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
09.12.23	Benfica B - Nacional	2:1
07.05.23	Benfica B - Nacional	1:2
29.12.22	Nacional - Benfica B	2:0
16.01.22	Nacional - Benfica B	0:3
09.08.21	Benfica B - Nacional	5:0
08.03.20	Nacional - Benfica B	3:1
26.10.19	Benfica B - Nacional	1:0

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