Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - QUALIFICATION - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 28 February 2024, Wednesday

Location: Gran Parque Central (Montevideo)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Brazil	ESPN 4


	Nacional Montevideo		Academia Puerto Cabello

	1	X	2
	1.44	3.8	6.5	Watch
	1.42	4.4	7.5
	1.47	4.2	6.5	Watch
	1.47	4.3	6.8
	1.44	4.38	7.84
	1.3	4.6	8.5	Watch
	1.42	4.35	7.65	Watch
	1.42	4.2	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.35)	4.28 ↓ (4.49)	7.26 ↓ (9.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Montevideo
65.4%

Draw
21.8%

Academia Puerto Cabello
12.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.9%

20.7%

10.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.1%

18.1%

11.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Academia Puerto Cabello has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nacional Montevideo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Academia Puerto Cabello than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Nacional Montevideo - Academia Puerto Cabello Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Mejia L. (G) 14. Lozano L. 3. Izquierdo J. 23. Polenta D. (C) 11. Baez Corradi G. 26. Sanabria L. 31. Helguera T. 7. Galeano A. 10. Pereyra M. 18. Recoba J. 9. Bentancourt R.	12. Schiavone G. (G) 5. Silva K. 4. Rivero C. 32. Moreno C. 18. Yendis J. 29. Covea M. 23. Congo Y. 22. Bravo F. (C) 11. Rojas R. 9. Hernandez L. 7. Fedor M.
Substitutes
13. Antoni M. 6. Cairus F. 20. Carneiro G. 16. Castro A. 33. Chagas Rodrigo 30. Ebere C. 19. Gonzalez G. 32. Martinez F. 5. Romero F. 21. Sanchez R. 25. Suarez I. (G) 22. Zabala D.	16. Bahachille A. 6. Cedeno J. 24. Cermeno C. 3. Conde Chourio O. I. 2. Ferreira E. 30. Gonzalez W. 20. Guerrero R. 8. Lugo W. 99. Okitokandjo S. 13. Peraza E. 19. Romero A. 55. Romero L. (G)
Coaches
Recoba A.	Sanvicente N.

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-0.

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Nacional could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Nacional have a series of guest games.

In this match Nacional is indisputable favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Nacional won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.02.24	Liverpool Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
21.02.24	Academia Puerto Cabello - Nacional Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
16.02.24	Nacional Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
06.02.24	Liverpool Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Serie Rio de la Plata
23.01.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TWWLW
- Academia Puerto Cabello
Venezuelan Primera Division
24.02.24	Deportivo La Guaira - Academia Puerto Cabello	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
21.02.24	Academia Puerto Cabello - Nacional Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
17.02.24	Academia Puerto Cabello - Estudiantes de Mérida	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
13.02.24	Defensor Sporting - Academia Puerto Cabello	1:1 penalties ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
09.02.24	Portuguesa Acarígua - Academia Puerto Cabello	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
21.02.24	Academia Puerto Cabello - Nacional Montevideo	0:2

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