Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Serie Rio de la Plata

Date: 13 January 2025, Monday

Location: Gran Parque Central (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN, ESPN Premium
Brazil	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
World	Disney+


	Nacional Montevideo		San Lorenzo

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.35	2.9	2.85
	2.45	2.95	3.1
	2.4	2.99	2.97	Watch
	2.4	2.8	3.1
	2.37	2.88	3.04	Watch
	2.45	2.95	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (2.38)	2.91 ↓ (3.22)	3.03 ↑ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Montevideo
38.2%

Draw
31.5%

San Lorenzo
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

28%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

27.1%

33.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

San Lorenzo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Nacional Montevideo - San Lorenzo Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Mejia L. (G) 11. Baez Corradi G. 28. Catarozzi F. 4. Coates S. (C) 76. Herazo D. 7. Lopez N. 8. Oliva C. 22. Otero R. 23. Polenta D. 18. Recoba J. 77. Rodriguez N.	1. Altamirano F. (G) 21. Braida M. 7. Cerutti E. 9. Cuello A. 6. Herrera D. 2. Herrera E. 5. Irala E. 80. Muniain I. (C) 11. Reali M. 4. Romana J. 8. Tripichio N.
Substitutes
31. Amaro J. 9. Damiani B. 14. Dos Santos A. 32. Mederos R. 29. Millan J. 19. Morales L. 16. Nunez 10. Pereyra M. 5. Rivero M. 27. Romero D. 25. Suarez I. (G)	15. Arias N. 3. Baez E. 17. Cecchini E. 14. Cordoba 18. Escalante V. 12. Gill O. (G) 19. Insaurralde M. 20. Ladstatter A. 22. Salinardi B. 16. Vega J. 13. Zelaya M. A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
42', 0 - 1, Herrera E. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Herazo D. ↓, Damiani B. ↑,
46', Polenta D. ↓, Millan J. ↑,
46', Otero R. ↓, Dos Santos A. ↑,
46', Catarozzi F. ↓, Mederos R. ↑,
46', Tripichio N. ↓, Insaurralde M. ↑,
46', Cerutti E. ↓, Escalante V. ↑,
46', Altamirano F. ↓, Gill O. ↑,
66', Lopez N. ↓, Pereyra M. ↑,
66', Rodriguez N. ↓, Morales L. ↑,
66', Oliva C. ↓, Amaro J. ↑,
66', Muniain I. ↓, Vega J. ↑,
66', Reali M. ↓, Cecchini E. ↑,
73', Cuello A. ↓, Salinardi B. ↑,
74', Recoba J. ↓, Nunez P. ↑,
74', Baez Corradi G. ↓, Romero D. ↑,
85', Braida M. 🟨,

Preview

Nacional is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

San Lorenzo has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recently Nacional have a series of home games.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Nacional won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:5 (average 1.7:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Nacional won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:2 (average 2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

San Lorenzo - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 34.14%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguay Copa
06.12.24	Nacional Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	2:3 penalties ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
01.12.24	Nacional Montevideo - Boston River	3:1 ✺
27.11.24	Danubio - Nacional Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
22.11.24	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	4:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
16.11.24	Nacional Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWTWW
- San Lorenzo
Argentinian Liga Profesional
13.12.24	San Lorenzo - Tigre	0:1 ✺
09.12.24	Argentinos Juniors - San Lorenzo	1:0 ✺
04.12.24	River Plate - San Lorenzo	1:1 ✺
29.11.24	San Lorenzo - Belgrano	0:2 ✺
17.11.24	San Lorenzo - Racing	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
29.01.22	Nacional Montevideo - San Lorenzo	2:2
Copa Sudamericana
25.09.18	Nacional Montevideo - San Lorenzo	2:0
22.08.18	San Lorenzo - Nacional Montevideo	3:1

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