Match Info

Stars League - Round 38

Date: 4 July 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Iraq	Almanasa, Iraqia Syriac


	Naft Al-Basra		Arbil

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.87	2.75
	2.45	2.82	2.88
	2.54	3	2.78
				Watch
	2.49	2.83	2.83	Watch
	2.34	2.7	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.28)	2.84 ↓ (2.91)	2.91 ↓ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Naft Al-Basra
37%

Draw
31.8%

Arbil
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

31.3%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

31.5%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Naft Al-Basra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Arbil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Naft Al-Basra than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arbil than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Naft Al Basra - Arbil Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
9', 1 - 0, Khalif Mohammed Q. (Pen),
16', 2 - 0, Khalif Mohammed Q. ⚽,
20', 2 - 1, Luqman G. ⚽,
44', 2 - 2, Mansor S. (Pen),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
52', 2 - 3, Safaa M. ⚽,
90+2', 3 - 3, Karrar J. ⚽,
90+8', 4 - 3, Ouro-Agoro I. (Pen),

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 and 12).

Naft Al-Basra is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Arbil's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Arbil has had a series of home games.

Naft Al-Basra is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Naft Al-Basra won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:6. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, Naft Al-Basra won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Naft Al-Basra
Iraqi Premier League
27.06.25	Diyala - Naft Al-Basra	2:2 ✺
20.06.25	Naft Al-Basra - Al-Shorta Baghdad	1:3 ✺
14.06.25	Zakho - Naft Al-Basra	2:1 ✺
18.05.25	Newroz - Naft Al-Basra	1:1 ✺
12.05.25	Naft Al-Basra - Najaf	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TLLTT
- Arbil
Iraqi Premier League
29.06.25	Arbil - Al-Karkh	1:3 ✺
25.06.25	Arbil - Duhok	2:1 ✺
19.06.25	Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya - Arbil	1:2 ✺
14.06.25	Arbil - Newroz	0:1 ✺
20.05.25	Arbil - Al-Talaba	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.7 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Iraqi Premier League
03.11.24	Arbil - Naft Al-Basra	4:1
19.12.23	Naft Al-Basra - Arbil	1:1
27.01.23	Arbil - Naft Al-Basra	1:1

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