Match Info

CHINA: Jia League - Round 30

Date: 3 November 2024, Sunday

Location: Wutaishan Stadium (Nanjing)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8


	Nanjing City		Guangzhou Evergrande

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.2	1.98
	3.4	3.2	2.03	Watch
	3.39	3.15	2.08
	3.6	3.23	2.1	Watch
	3.4	3.2	2
	3.29	3.18	2.08	Watch
	3.4	3.2	2.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.4 ↑ (2.52)	3.19 ↑ (3.15)	2.04 ↓ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nanjing City
26.8%

Draw
28.5%

Guangzhou Evergrande
44.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

28.6%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

29.8%

34.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nanjing City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nanjing City's form might have worsened.

Guangzhou Evergrande has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Guangzhou Evergrande's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nanjing City than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nanjing City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guangzhou Evergrande than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Guangzhou Evergrande, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Nanjing City - Guangzhou Evergrande Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Guangzhou Evergrande will win (votes: 14 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guangzhou Evergrande: 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Qi Yuxi (G) 30. Tayir Shewketjan 45. Ji Xiang 26. Liu Jiahui 9. Yang He (C) 28. Ling Jie 31. Zhu Qiwen 29. Dong H. 7. Nem Jefferson 11. Matheus Moresche 20. Ogbu M.	32. Huo S. (G) 5. Wang Shilong 8. Sadauskas R. 18. Liao Jintao 3. Liu Langzhou 16. Zhang Zhixiong 6. Hou Yu (C) 17. Yang Hao 14. Wu Yongqiang 11. Aniwar Abduwahap 9. Alegria J.
Substitutes
2. Dujardin A. 16. Gong Hankui 23. Gong Jinlin 17. Meng Zhen 18. Nan Xiaoheng 42. Shi Chenglong (G) 27. Wang Hao 8. Wei Yuren 38. Xu Zhenyu 39. Yu M. 24. Zhang Yu 13. Zheng Hao (G)	30. Bai Yutao 22. Li Jiahao 28. Penaloza J. 24. Qurban W. 13. Wang Jie 27. Wang Junyang 2. Wang Wenxuan 19. Wu Junjie 31. Wu Zitong (G) 15. Xu Bin 23. Yang Dejiang 12. Yasin Islam
Coaches
Zhang X.	Suay S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', Tayir Shewketjan 🟨,
18', 0 - 1, Wu Yongqiang ⚽, Alegria J. (A),
22', Wang Shilong 🟨,
25', Alegria J. 🟨,
33', 1 - 1, Zhu Qiwen ⚽, Ogbu M. (A),
34', Liu Langzhou 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Yang Hao ↓, Penaloza J. ↑,
46', Zhang Zhixiong ↓, Wang Wenxuan ↑,
46', Liu Langzhou ↓, Xu Bin ↑,
62', Ling Jie ↓, Yu M. ↑,
65', Yu M. 🟨,
74', Zhu Qiwen ↓, Meng Zhen ↑,
76', Aniwar Abduwahap ↓, Wu Junjie ↑,
76', Wu Yongqiang ↓, Bai Yutao ↑,
81', Ogbu M. 🟨,
84', 2 - 1, Yu M. ⚽, Matheus Moresche (A),
87', 🟥,
88', Ji Xiang 🟨,
90+1', Nem Jefferson ↓, Wang Hao ↑,
90+6', Liao Jintao 🟨,
90+15', Wang Hao 🟨,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nanjing City FC
Chinese Jia League
26.10.24	Qingdao Red Lions - Nanjing City	2:1 ✺
20.10.24	Nanjing City - Guangxi Pingguo Haliao	4:1 ✺
13.10.24	Dalian Young Boy - Nanjing City	2:0 ✺
05.10.24	Nanjing City - Shijiazhuang Gongfu	1:1 ✺
28.09.24	Chongqing Tongliang Long - Nanjing City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWLTL
- Guangzhou Evergrande TH
Chinese Jia League
26.10.24	Guangzhou Evergrande - Yanbian Longding	3:1 ✺
19.10.24	Liaoning Tieren - Guangzhou Evergrande	0:2 ✺
12.10.24	Guangzhou Evergrande - Jiangxi Lushan	0:0 ✺
05.10.24	Guangzhou Evergrande - Guangxi Pingguo Haliao	1:1 ✺
27.09.24	Qingdao Red Lions - Guangzhou Evergrande	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Jia League
29.06.24	Guangzhou Evergrande - Nanjing City	1:1
09.09.23	Guangzhou Evergrande - Nanjing City	1:1
28.05.23	Nanjing City - Guangzhou Evergrande	3:2

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