Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 34

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade de la Beaujoire (Nantes)

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
India	GXR World
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Mexico	Caliente TV App, Caliente TV
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Russia	Okko Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Turkey	beIN Connect
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 11
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+


	Nantes		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.33	5.75	Watch
	1.46	4.4	7
	1.55	4.15	5.85
	1.57	4.3	6.5
	1.55	4.15	6.15	Watch
	1.44	4.33	6.5
	1.59	4.45	5.64	Watch
	1.55	4.15	5.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.61)	4.28 ↓ (4.37)	6.16 ↑ (4.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nantes
62.3%

Draw
22.2%

Montpellier
15.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59%

21.8%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

18.2%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nantes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nantes than the current prediction. (-13%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nantes that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Montpellier could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.2%	5.6%	2.2%

Nantes - Montpellier Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Nantes (1.92) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.25 - Montpellier (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Nantes will win (82 of 89 users predict this - 92.13%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.54% – 97.72%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nantes will win (47 of 48 users predict this - 97.92%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 53 Selected Experts predict this event. Nantes (votes: 50 - 94.3%). Montpellier (votes: 3 - 5.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Lopes A. (G) 22. Thomas S. 98. Amian K. 21. Castelletto J. 4. Pallois N. 66. Leroux L. 13. Coquelin F. 5. Chirivella P. (C) 6. Douglas Augusto 39. Abline M. 27. Simon M.	16. Bertaud D. (G) 21. Mincarelli L. 47. Mouanga Y. 27. Omeragic B. (C) 29. Tchato E. 44. Chennahi T. 11. Savanier T. 13. Chotard J. 12. Ferri J. 70. Coulibaly T. 41. Ndiaye J.
Substitutes
59. Assoumani D. 30. Carlgren P. (G) 18. Centonze F. 11. Coco M. 3. Cozza N. 17. Elia M. 62. Guirassy B. 8. Lepenant J. 44. Zeze N.	45. Dzodic S. 6. Jullien C. 4. Kouyate K. 40. Lecomte B. (G) 2. Meite A. 49. Ndollo Bille W. 5. Sagnan M.
Coaches
Kombouare A.	Camara Z.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Simon M. (Pen),
25', Tchato E. ↓, Ndollo Bille W. ↑,
31', 2 - 0, Coquelin F. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Savanier T. ↓, Dzodic S. ↑,
46', Mouanga Y. ↓, Sagnan M. ↑,
49', Chennahi T. 🟨,
53', Thomas S. 🟨,
57', Pallois N. 🟨,
71', Coquelin F. 🟨,
72', Pallois N. ↓, Zeze N. ↑,
72', Thomas S. ↓, Centonze F. ↑,
73', Coquelin F. ↓, Lepenant J. ↑,
79', 3 - 0, Abline M. ⚽, Simon M. (A),
87', Simon M. ↓, Guirassy B. ↑,
88', Chirivella P. ↓, Assoumani D. ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 15 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

Montpellier is Relegated to Ligue 2

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nantes won 3.

Nantes is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Montpellier has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Nantes is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Nantes: Doucoure S. (Shoulder Injury) Mahamoud A. (Knee Injury) Mostafa Mohamed (Injury) Sow S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Montpellier: Delort A. (Lacking Match Fitness) Fayad K. (Yellow Cards) Gueguin A. (Ribs Injury) Issoufou Y. (Injury) Maamma O. (International duty) Maksimovic N. (Thigh Injury) Nzingoula R. (Yellow Cards) Pays N. (Foot Injury) Sagnan M. (Thigh Injury) Sainte-Luce T. (Muscle Injury) Sylla I. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Montpellier: Jullien C. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nantes won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 28:18. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Nantes won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1.2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Nantes
French Ligue 1
10.05.25	Auxerre - Nantes	1:1 ✺
04.05.25	Nantes - Angers	0:1 ✺
27.04.25	Nantes - Toulouse	0:0 ✺
22.04.25	Nantes - Paris Saint-Germain	1:1 ✺
18.04.25	Rennes - Nantes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 TLTTL
- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 1
10.05.25	Montpellier - Paris Saint-Germain	1:4 ✺
04.05.25	Brest - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
27.04.25	Montpellier - Reims	0:0 ✺
19.04.25	Olympique Marseille - Montpellier	5:1 ✺
13.04.25	Angers - Montpellier	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
31.08.24	Montpellier - Nantes	1:3
26.04.24	Montpellier - Nantes	1:1
22.10.23	Nantes - Montpellier	2:0
20.05.23	Nantes - Montpellier	0:3
15.01.23	Montpellier - Nantes	0:3
06.03.22	Nantes - Montpellier	2:0
31.10.21	Montpellier - Nantes	2:0

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