What is the expert prediction for Auxerre vs Nantes?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Auxerre vs Nantes. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Auxerre vs Nantes Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, April 11, 2026)

Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 29

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps (Auxerre)

Referee: Delajod W. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv Football
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Brazil	Caze TV
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Kenya	Gotv
Mexico	FOX One, FOX Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV4
Romania	Voyo
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Slovakia	Nova Sport 6, Voyo
South-africa	SuperSport Variety 4
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Latino, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus, TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Auxerre		Nantes

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	4.2	Watch
	1.95	3.35	4.15	Watch
	1.96	3.39	4.58
	1.91	3.37	4.31	Watch
	1.85	3.2	4
	1.94	3.47	4.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2.09)	3.36 ↑ (3.26)	4.28 ↑ (3.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Auxerre
49.5%

Draw
28.3%

Nantes
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

29%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

25.4%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Auxerre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Nantes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Auxerre than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Auxerre that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nantes than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nantes could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.3%	13.3%	13.3%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Auxerre will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Nantes will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Auxerre: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Auxerre (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Nantes (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Auxerre (1.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Auxerre (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Nantes (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Leon D. (G) 29. Senaya M. 20. Diomande S. 24. Okoh B. 14. Mensah G. 5. Danois K. 42. Owusu E. (C) 28. Faivre R. 19. Namaso D. 22. Oppegard F. 10. Sinayoko L.	1. Lopes A. (C) 24. Guilbert F. 2. Ali Youssef 3. Cozza N. 27. Machado D. 13. Coquelin F. 17. Tabibou D. 21. Kaba M. 8. Lepenant J. 10. Abline M. 37. Ganago I.
Substitutes
8. Ahamada N. 92. Akpa C. 44. Cissokho M. 21. Coulibaly L. 40. De Percin T. (G) 18. Diousse A. 9. Mara S. 4. Sierralta F. 27. Sy L.	6. Awaziem C. 20. Cabella R. 30. Carlgren P. (G) 18. Centonze F. 19. El Arabi Y. 66. Leroux L. 31. Mostafa Mohamed 26. Radakovic U. 28. Sissoko I.
Coaches
Pelissier C.	Halilhodzic V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Ganago I. 🟨,
16', Lepenant J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
67', Namaso D. ↓, Mara S. ↑,
73', Coquelin F. ↓, Sissoko I. ↑,
74', Tabibou D. ↓, Centonze F. ↑,
77', Faivre R. ↓, Ahamada N. ↑,
77', Oppegard F. ↓, Coulibaly L. ↑,
81', Abline M. ↓, Mostafa Mohamed ↑,
82', Guilbert F. ↓, Cabella R. ↑,
86', Sissoko I. 🟨,
89', Centonze F. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 in the zone Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Auxerre won 1.

Auxerre has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Nantes has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Auxerre is the team to beat.

There will not play in Auxerre: Buayi-Kiala N. (Knee Injury) El Azzouzi O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Nantes: Tati T. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Auxerre: Coulibaly L. (Injury) Mensah G. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Auxerre won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:13. (average 0.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Auxerre won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

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Last Results with these Odds

Nantes - the odds 3.66 are the expected chance of winning is 25.81%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AJ Auxerre
French Ligue 1
05.04.26	Le Havre - Auxerre	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Auxerre - Brest	3:0 ✺
13.03.26	Olympique Marseille - Auxerre	1:0 ✺
07.03.26	Auxerre - Strasbourg	0:0 ✺
01.03.26	Lorient - Auxerre	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 TWLTT
- FC Nantes
French Ligue 1
05.04.26	Metz - Nantes	0:0 ✺
22.03.26	Nantes - Strasbourg	2:3 ✺
07.03.26	Nantes - Angers	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	Lille - Nantes	1:0 ✺
22.02.26	Nantes - Le Havre	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
30.08.25	Nantes - Auxerre	1:0
10.05.25	Auxerre - Nantes	1:1
25.08.24	Nantes - Auxerre	2:0
16.04.23	Auxerre - Nantes	2:1
01.01.23	Nantes - Auxerre	1:0
Coupe De France
23.01.18	Nantes - Auxerre	3:4
French Coupe de la Ligue
17.12.13	Nantes - Auxerre	1:0

Auxerre - Nantes: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide